tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4509736829271344872.post207962085862610686..comments2024-03-02T03:24:43.931-05:00Comments on Advanced Analytic Techniques: Wisdom of group forecasts: Does role-playing play a role?Kristan J. Wheatonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566135545863154089noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4509736829271344872.post-18131287976583142092015-08-31T08:10:30.269-04:002015-08-31T08:10:30.269-04:00As you may know, the results of an experiment don&...As you may know, the results of an experiment don't have to be statistically significant. This can be interpreted as that the experimenter(s) couldn't find enough support for his/her discussion questions at the end of the study. However, in this study, the authors encourage the future studies to be held with increased sample sizes. Probably, that would make the results more concise. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14325668552951820760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4509736829271344872.post-49132160943907058012015-08-31T00:15:06.099-04:002015-08-31T00:15:06.099-04:00The article mentions that the forecasts from the r...The article mentions that the forecasts from the role-playing groups yielded consistently lower errors, while the non-role-playing groups varied in accuracy. Do you think increasing the sample size of the groups or total participants could show for more statistical significance?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01898287987552590078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4509736829271344872.post-692112172380451902015-08-30T23:20:36.196-04:002015-08-30T23:20:36.196-04:00Actually, the study doesn't state that it is i...Actually, the study doesn't state that it is impossible to have a control group with subject matter expertise. It only indicates that they couldn't find a result that would support the role-playing is an effective technique 'assumption' for their very unique study. Moreover, they identify the expertise as 'mental models'. Individual competencies, skills, and knowledge of the group members constitute the mental models. Therefore, these have the biggest impact on their judgments. And since they adhere to their identified roles (they tend to think for the benefit of DM) the biggest impact comes from the decision maker's mental model. (However, it is a rule that there is no leader in this experiment.) Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14325668552951820760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4509736829271344872.post-88893607045350943952015-08-30T22:07:54.876-04:002015-08-30T22:07:54.876-04:00As mentioned in your critique, one of the problems...As mentioned in your critique, one of the problems with role playing is experience with the problem that is being explored. An untrained or inexperienced participant may come up with theories or conclusions that are inconsistent with reality. It seems it is very important to have role players with subject matter expertise on the topic. However, from a scholarly perspective, if I understand the results correctly, you can’t have a control group with subject matter expertise and remove bias or group think simultaneously from the test.Oleg melnikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18167461330421156313noreply@blogger.com