tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4509736829271344872.post2619379655417132721..comments2024-03-02T03:24:43.931-05:00Comments on Advanced Analytic Techniques: Affecting Policy by Manipulating Prediction Markets: Experimental EvidenceKristan J. Wheatonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566135545863154089noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4509736829271344872.post-56962903305556167472014-10-12T21:45:36.768-04:002014-10-12T21:45:36.768-04:00Harrison,
Great point on the need for constant v...Harrison, <br /><br />Great point on the need for constant vigilance against denial and deception. The authors compared market variables between situations with and without a manipulator presence and found that manipulators increased trade volume and made prices less varied at a statistically significant level. <br /><br />The article falls short of prescribing how people participating or directing a prediction market can identify manipulative trading while the market is "live" or how to mitigate manipulator influence on participant trading. <br /><br />Heuer states that the possibility of deception cannot be rejected simply because there is no evidence of it because if deception is done well, one should not expect to find evidence of it. <br /><br />We can infer from the article that the people in charge of managing the prediction market in question are in a position to detect potential manipulators in real-time by looking at the live trend charts if the infrastructure supporting the prediction market enables the feature. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4509736829271344872.post-19643843326230533732014-10-12T16:01:17.221-04:002014-10-12T16:01:17.221-04:00Ricardo,
As analysts, we always have to take into...Ricardo,<br /><br />As analysts, we always have to take into account the possibility that the information we are gathering was intentionally put out there maliciously. Do the authors suggest, or do you have any opinions, on identifying deceptive practices in a prediction market as not to influence our trading?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11771375528076623770noreply@blogger.com