tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4509736829271344872.post5542981227354348756..comments2024-03-02T03:24:43.931-05:00Comments on Advanced Analytic Techniques: Use of Monte Carlo Simulation in EPA Risk Assessments - Dr. Roy L. SmithKristan J. Wheatonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566135545863154089noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4509736829271344872.post-60452412384829570442017-11-12T21:55:18.663-05:002017-11-12T21:55:18.663-05:00I agree with you Claude, monte carlo simulation en...I agree with you Claude, monte carlo simulation enables Bayes to be used in a wide array of fields.Oddi Onyemenemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10637331611454187250noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4509736829271344872.post-68037000777669268482017-11-12T09:53:58.014-05:002017-11-12T09:53:58.014-05:00In the context of what the EPA wanted, the basic g...In the context of what the EPA wanted, the basic goal of a Monte Carlo analysis was to characterize, quantitatively, the uncertainty and variability in estimates of exposure or risk. When Monte Carlo simulation was applied to the EPA risk assessment, the risk appears as a frequency distribution graph similar to the familiar bell-shaped curve, which non-statisticians can understand intuitively. The risk was calculated 5000 times, with each calculation based on a different randomly-selected exposure scenario. The RME risk estimate fell between the 95th and 99th percentiles. The simulation clearly provides a complete risk information than the single numerical risk estimates.Michael Pouchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02227558276865347997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4509736829271344872.post-56786855447037462552017-11-10T20:14:37.114-05:002017-11-10T20:14:37.114-05:00This study shows just how well Monte Carlo complem...This study shows just how well Monte Carlo complement Bayesian Statistics. Bayes creates a point estimate while Monte Carlo, when done properly, can cover the range of possibilities along with their variability and uncertainty. <br /><br />Thank you. Claudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03337221613496319436noreply@blogger.com