Logistics and the (Lost?) Art of Red Teaming

Summary:

This article describes the various barriers that aid in the knowledge of effective red teaming within the joint logistics community. Authors Christopher Paparone and George Topic address issues that arise for this tool within senior management and leadership positions. Paparone and Topic define red teaming as “the process of critically examining and challenging the basic assumptions underpinning professional knowledge, planning, programming, ideas, or initiatives.”

Used within the fields of business and national security, red teaming provides organizations with the ability to use unconventional methods in order to tackle simple or complex problems. Within this article, Paparone and Topic ask “How often and how well does the U.S. defense logistics enterprise red teaming and its major efforts?” Running contrary to the concepts and designs of red teaming, the authors state that many institutions within the logistics community tend to rely on unchallenged thought processes and ideas. 

Paparone and Topic stated that group think is one major issue that red teaming attempts to mitigate as much as possible due to its negative influence on group members as a whole. Controlling and bypassing group think has at least three barriers that the authors discuss throughout this article.

The first barrier that Paparone and Topic address is hierarchy. While hierarchy does provide uniform and efficient organization within the military for instance, it also can require unquestioned compliance. This compliance can prevent a specific environment from developing and encountering innovative ideas.

The second barrier presents the idea that the team should be valued more than the ultimate decision made in any given situation. According to Paparone and Topic, respecting team members and their ideas signifies a willingness to be open to new ideas and criticism.

The third and final barrier offered in this article displays a theme of self-censoring which in this case, there is no desire to offer an alternative solution for fear that it will fail. With this in mind, the individual not only fears failure, but also the blame that comes with that from other teammates.

One solution that the authors present in the academic realm to counter hierarchy, group think, and fear of blame is the process of double-blind peer reviews. This process helps to protect criticism from being concealed under any of these three previously discussed barriers. The authors conclude this article by stating that one of the most important lessons to teach future leaders is the “importance of candid and critical assessments.”

Source:

Paparone, Christopher R., Topic Jr., George L. (2015). Logistics and the (lost?) art of red teaming. Army Sustainment, 47(2), 7-8.

Friday, October 14, 2016

Evolving Optimal and Diversified Military Operational Plans for Computational Red Teaming

Summary:

This journal article uses multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) on Computational Red Teaming (CRT) to increase diversity of near-optimal alternative strategies in the decision variable space. CRT is the computerization of Red Teaming through the use of agent-based models for application toward a given battlefield. The Red team tries to break the Blue’s defensive strategy, and for their experimentation the scientists used two case study approaches that use diversity-enhancement schemes (DES) to increase the diversification of MOEAs.

1. Covered in the first part of the study the scientists expressed the recent literature of CRT, which is an agent-based system (ABS) that mimics and simulates intricate models of warfare. Similar programs include ISAAC/EINSTein, WISDOM, and MANA. The advantage of using these models the scientists point out is that their low-resolution in their simulation models can produce many various simulations with many properties. That can then be searched by analysts for particular techniques and models that interest them. Included in this section are the plethora of mathematical operations and equations included in MOEAs to carry and develop the results from population-based stochastic search heuristics created from real phenomena in nature.

2. Following the literature review came the methodology where the researchers used an evolutionary framework that included 1) a model generator; 2) a simulation engine that usually generates 30 repetitions for each simulation model; and 3) an evolutionary algorithm that generates results for model specification files. Added to these steps for this research paper was the diversity enhancement scheme (DES) which focuses the evolutionary search focuses, “1) to preserve and promote the non-dominated solutions to exploit Pareto optimal solutions, and 2) similarly, the solutions which contribute to the aggregated, in both decision and objective, space diversity are also preserved/promoted” (Zeng, Decraene, Low, Zhou, & Cai 2012).

3.  By the experimentation point, the scientists did two case studies where Red strikes Blues defensive strategies in an urban ops scenario and a maritime anchorage protection scenario. Included in the measuring of these case studies was the DES and MOEAs to assess similarities and differences in the selected MOEAs of DES, Niching, HypeE, NSGAII, and SPEA2.

4. It was found that DES and Niching were the best MOEAs showing significant indicators of Pareto optimal solutions and solution diversification, with DES taking the lead of the two.

Concluding it all the researchers in their conclusion found that most research conducted using MOEAs has used Pareto-optimality as the focus and neglect the area of diversification of solutions within the decision variable space. Thus limiting choices a decision maker has when applied to real world problems. Through the DES research applied in this research study, the researchers give the ability to diversify the decision space without compromising the Pareto-optimality. Thus allowing more room and information for a decision maker to make a more informed decision and conclusion that is likely to be positive than negative.

Critique:

The usage of red teaming can be a useful modifier when it comes to needing to produce more realistic analysis and give a decision maker a more rounded brief that he can make the best decision for. Yet, in the modern day as this study on using MOEAs on CRT, we face a more technologic based model that is more reliant on technology, particularly when it comes to the cyber domain. Therefore, the application of CRTs gives access to the ability to run an exponential amount of simulations that analysts can use to produce more informed briefs for a decision maker, and speed up the intelligence process. Though this exercise in the research study was more of a War Gaming view, it none the less covers the notion that it is no longer analysts that work on teams or red teams solely. It also puts the computer programs that aid in the ability to produce data to also part take in similar exercises increasing the number of simulations and decreasing the likelihood of a potential estimates failing. Of course, intelligence is still an imperfect profession and art, but the use of red teaming can reduce, particularly through the use of CRT and technology, the uncertainty for a decision maker.

Sources

Evolving Optimal and Diversified Military Operational Plans for Computational Red Teaming

Zeng, F., Decraene, J., Low, M. Y. H., Zhou, S., & Cai, W. (2012). Evolving optimal and diversified military operational plans for computational red teaming. IEEE Systems Journal, 6(3), 499-509. <https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Suiping_Zhou/publication/258655766_Evolving_Optimal_and_Diversified_Military_Operational_Plans_for_Computational_Red_Teaming/links/5536541d0cf268fd00171fd6.pdf>.

Red Teaming: How to Succeed by Thinking Like the Enemy, Chapter 1 – Micah Zenko

Summary

Red teaming is an extremely delicate method of analysis which requires at the outset the adherence of six principles as researched by Micah Zenko in the first chapter of his book, “Red Teaming: How to Succeed by Thinking Like the Enemy.” Micah Zenko is a senior fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations who focuses most of his research on conflict prevention, US national security policy, military planning and operations, and nuclear weapons policy. He wrote this book to fulfill a lacunae of research in the pursuance of an authoritatively centralized body of research on red team analysis.

He finds after surveying industry practitioners, military leadership, intelligence community professionals, and a variety of other sources that for any red team to succeed, 1.) the boss must buy in. 2.) The team needs to be outside and objective, while inside and aware. 3.) The team requires fearless skeptics who utilize finesses. 4.) The analysts who fill the analytic positions of a red team need to have a “big bag of tricks.” 5.) The consumer of the red teamed analysis needs to be willing to hear bad news and act on it. 6.) Finally, the team just needs to red team enough, but no more.

Findings

Per each principle a brief description is necessary to understand the extent of the red team ability:

1.)  The Boss Must Buy In: In this phase for any red team to be successful the “boss” has to buy into what the analytic team is doing so that they have the “top cover” needed to remain effective. This goes insofar as to say that the boss needs to set up enabling conditions in the support of their employees to build contrarian and otherwise alternative forms of analysis.

2.)   Outside and Objective, While Inside and Aware: It is critical that a red cell understands the structure, scope, and sensitivity of the problem they are working and in addition, “must avoid becoming institutionally captured, while also making a sustained contribution to that institutions core mission.” This is to say a red team must synchronize within the institution that it services, but not bound to the same bureaucracy.  Further, this process if done right, “should not result in inadvertent disruption or damage,” but rather probe an analysis or system for errors. Although many times red team analysis cause disruption.

3.)    Fearless Skeptics with Finesse: Red teams need to consist of people that are capable enough to be versed as both “critical” and “divergent” thinkers. In many cases, red teamers also need to be able to slip past cognitive bias and view themselves in a light as free of bias as possible. Although still difficult as analysts collectively exhibit “existence bias” or the natural tendency to believe something is good or morally just because it exists. To be real about a situation, many red teamers have also experienced at some point in their career “systemic failures” which help them think up future failures.

4.)    Have a Big Bag of Tricks: The red team analyst is one who cannot become entrenched in routine and easily anticipated. Conversely, the analyst needs to be eclectic and broad-minded. Further, the analyst needs to possess flexibility and adaptability to apply to different situations to achieve traction and uniqueness. This is a constantly updating principle as analysts continue to assimilate technology into their ability assist in new analyses.

5.)    Be Willing to Hear Bad News and Act on It: The efforts of the red team should not be presented to a consumer and then sit on a shelf. If that is the case, nothing has been done to mitigate the findings of the red team and their analysis has not been taken seriously. This many times is not the fault of the red team; it is the institutions inability to accept the “potentially bad news” which could cost the organization some kind of material gains. Bottom line, the commissioning institution has to follow through with the information which is supplied in one fashion or another.

6.)    Red Team Just Enough, But No More: The use of red teaming capabilities needs to be calibrated to the needs of the organization. The red team analysts should not red team for the sake of “red teaming” rather, they should aim to resolve an initial problem that they were initial tasked with figuring out from its start to its conclusion. Additionally, “a red team can warn senior decision-makers about blind spots or unforeseen challenges that they need to focus on immediately.” Red teams also need to be cognizant of the overall ramifications of the fallout and calibration needed to accept the answers they provide to the organization.

Critique

Zenko presents effectively and clearly the overall prescriptions of how to use a red team appropriately. The book although highly authoritative is hard to just pick up and glean tactics and abilities from. Taking the book and condensing it into a concise user manual may provide decision makers and red teamers alike a framework to understand the partnership they are engaging in a bit more clearly. Overall, great source.

Source

Zenko, M. (2015). Red Team: How to succeed by thinking like the enemy. Basic Books.

Summary of Findings: Diet and Cognition (3 out of 5 Stars)

Note: This post represents the synthesis of the thoughts, procedures and experiences of others as represented in the articles read in advance (see previous posts) and the discussion among the students and instructor during the Advanced Analytic Techniques class at Mercyhurst University in October 2016 regarding Diet and Cognition as an Analytic Technique specifically. This technique was evaluated based on its overall validity, simplicity, flexibility and its ability to effectively use on structured data.

Description:

Diet and Cognition is an analytic modifier that focuses on mineral and nutrient intake and its relationship with decision making. The dietary needs can be met via a plan that could potentially consist of daily meals rich antioxidant fruits and vegetables, omega-3 fats, and low glycemic index carbohydrates.

Strengths:

• Relatively easy to control (for self)
• Good diet can increase overall health rather than just cognition for forecasting use
• It is low hanging fruit to apply toward its application with analysts and cognition in a given study.

Weaknesses:

• Results are inconclusive due to a small sample size
• May vary from individual to individual
• Difficult to conduct studies in diet at institutions due to review boards

How-To:

1. Consult with your physician before beginning any new diets.
2. Identify foods that you know make you feel more alert and active and eat more of them.
3. Identify foods that make you feel drowsy, lazy, or cloud your ability to concentrate and remove them from your diet.
4. Incorporate foods high in antioxidants such as fruits and vegetables, nuts and other high protein foods, and omega 3s. Try to stay away from foods high in cholesterol and carbohydrates.

Application of Technique:

To test this modifier participants were broken up into a test group and control group. Both groups were asked to fast from 10 PM the evening prior to the experiment consuming only water. The test group was given a prepackaged meal 10 minutes prior the experiment while the control group was left to further starvation.

Both groups were presented with a standardized test consisting of questions including US electoral rules and practices, arithmetic questions, and spatial recognition questions. The test were graded and results were compared between the test group and control group.

Due to a limited test population, results were inconclusive.

For Further Information:

Snake Oil Two:

http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/snake-oil-supplements/

The Black Vault - Intelligence Community (IC) Agency Cafeterias:

http://www.theblackvault.com/documentarchive/agency-cafeterias-complaints-menus/

Food Pyramid:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6d/USDA_Food_Pyramid.gif

The Food Pyramid Guide:

https://www.cnpp.usda.gov/sites/default/files/archived_projects/FGPPamphlet.pdf

12 Superfoods To Boost Your Brainpower:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/23/brain-food-superfoods_n_1895328.html

Food for Thought -  Diet Does Boost Your Intelligence:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/news/8308726/Food-for-thought-diet-does-boost-your-intelligence.html

The Evolution of Diet:

http://www.nationalgeographic.com/foodfeatures/evolution-of-diet/