Friday, November 11, 2016

The Scharff Technique: On How to Effectively Elicit Intelligence from Human Sources

Summary

Much of the time intelligence agencies and law enforcement capabilities do not have the whole picture about a particular problem which is being analyzed. To that end, the need for individuals who are trained in human intelligence (HUMINT) is immensely important to gathering the right information to fill the gaps in knowledge. Part of this is the process of elicitation.

During World War II an individual by the name of Hanns Joachim Scharff (1907-1992) worked at the German Luftwaffe’s Intelligence and Evaluation Center (Auswertestelle West). During Scharff’s tenure with the Luftwaffe he had the opportunity to refine his interpersonal skills and hone in on his engaging personality. Additionally, during this posting he was able to through trial-and-error interrogate over 500 American and British fighter pilots.

At Dulag Luft where he began his interrogations he operated contrary to that of his predecessor. “Rather than compelling his prisoners to reveal classified data through the employment of coercive methods, his success was the result of carefully orchestrated, outwardly friendly exchanges with his prisoners.” Contributing to his success in eliciting information from his sources was the fact that U.S. Army Air Corps airmen were taught to expect violence and even torture when information was being elicited from them.

To be effective as an interrogator and collector of human intelligence three key pillars for success of gathering quality HUMINT are the collector’s ability to “create a non-adversarial relationship with the prisoners,” and “create an environment that might make the [Prisoner of War] POW momentarily forget he was being interrogated.”  Finally, to avoid hostility, the collector needs to “display a friendly demeanor.”

Scharff also knew the value of being able to put himself in the shoes of the adversary and develop strategies to counter the prisoner’s ability to conceal information. The following three principles are paramount about HUMINT contexts:

a       a.) A source typically forms a hypothesis regarding how much and what information the interviewer already holds;
b    b.) The source’s perception (of the information already held by the interviewer) will, in turn, affect his or her counter-interrogation strategies; and
c    c.) The counter-interrogation strategies employed will affect how much and what information the source reveals.

The conceptualization of Scharff’s method requires five distinct parameters to operate effectively:

1        1.)  To employ a friendly approach.
2        2.)  Do not press for information.
3        3.)  The illusion of knowing-it-all. (Interviewer pretends to know more than they do).
4        4.)  The use of confirmations/disconfirmations.
5        5.)   Ignore new information.

To measure the effectiveness of the technique Granhag et. al. (2016) developed five prime measures to assess the aforementioned parameters effectiveness in eliciting information:

1      1.) The amount of new information elicited.
2      2.) The extant understanding of the interviewer’s information objectives.
3      3.) The source’s perceptions of the interviewer.
4    4.) The more information the source perceives the interviewer to have the more favorable for        information will be elicited.
5     5.) The source does not realize they have divulged any additional information on their own volition.

After running an experiment which allowed a variety of interviewers to elicit information from human sources and corroborate findings with the above mentioned parameters while meshing the data gathered with extent literature the authors found the technique effective. “In brief, [the authors] have shown that the Scharff technique consistently outperforms the *Direct Approach on the most critical efficacy measures. The combined evidence marks that Scharff technique as an effective tool for eliciting human intelligence.”

*Direct Approach: U.S. Army Field Manuel: An initial approach of a source through the use of “open-ended and explicit questions posed in a business-like manner.

Critique

This article provided the academic community with research in an otherwise under-researched area shy of the classified community. Given this reality, it is hard to find issues with the research. The analysis would have been stronger if more insight into the methodology of the experimentation took place, however, the overall strength of the study is bound to the qualitative nature of assessing the Scharff technique. Also, the study addressed a limitation which revolved extensively around the studies inability to successfully replicate itself due to the fact, “typical HUMINT interaction[s] are very difficult or even impossible to reproduce in a laboratory setting.”

Source

Par Anders Granhag, Steven M. Kleinman & Simon Oleszkiewicz. (2016). The Scharff Technique: On     How to Effectively Elicit Intelligence from Human Sources, International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 29:1, 132-150.

Monday, November 7, 2016

Summary of Findings: Role Playing (4 out of 5 Stars)

Note: This post represents the synthesis of the thoughts, procedures and experiences of others as represented in the articles read in advance (see previous posts) and the discussion among the students and instructor during the Advanced Analytic Techniques class at Mercyhurst University in October 2016 regarding Role Playing as an Analytic Technique specifically. This technique was evaluated based on its overall validity, simplicity, flexibility and its ability to effectively use structured data.

Description:
Role-playing is a method that prompts the participants to assume a character within a given situation. The idea is that the participant will research the motivations and desires of one of the characters within the situation. This knowledge allows the participant to gain insight into how that character will act. This translates into a potential course of action for that character which could correlate with a real world outcome.

Strengths:
  • Has a lot of research that supports effectiveness
  • Allows analysts to better understand the motives of their target
  • Is flexible in the type of scenarios that can be simulated and analyzed
  • Is possible to perform in a timely manner
  • Relatively easy to set up with little cost

Weaknesses:
  • Dependent on adaptation of an individual to a role.
  • Exercise needs the right balance of giving enough information to describe internal motivations of characters being role-played, but not so detailed that the outcome is basically predetermined.
  • Must be structured correctly or results may go awry (must have proper nuances for characters or sufficient background to establish the role properly)
  • Requires a positive attitude of participants for exercise to be successful
How-To:
  • Identify a topic of interest that requires study for which a basic understanding exists
  • Identify the roles that require analysis
  • Identify actors to participate in the role playing experiment
  • Provide the actors with their background information about their characters
  • Allow actors time to absorb their characters background info
  • Provide the actors with the scenario for which they are to act out
  • Act out the scenario as the actor believes their role player would act in real life
  • Complete the scenario and discuss the findings
  • Run the scenario again with different actions taken by participants
  • Complete and discuss findings
  • Repeat as necessary until results indicate which outcomes are most likely

Application of Technique:

The analysts were given literature prior to class about the Afghanistan opium trade, CIA and DEA’s operations in Afghanistan to begin conceptualizing what they needed to know about the issue to assess the relationship of increased violence between Kandahar and Kabul.

In class participants were given their roles: Taliban Warlord, a High Value Target (HVT) in Pakistan, an Afghan poppy harvester, a CIA Case Officer (CO), and a DEA FAST member. Each of the individuals learned their roles in five-minutes. Then for 15-minutes the participants interacted in their roles and gathered information for each other. Finally, at the conclusion of the role-playing timeframe the participants created a presentation and debrief a key findings to the proctors of the session.

See below for descriptions:

Afghanistan Drug and IED Events and US Countermeasures
Objective
To develop insight into how the relationships between each of the role-playing components respond to each other in hopes of teasing out further understanding of the Afghan drug trade and its relationship to increased violence between Kandahar and Kabul.
Introduction
In the news recently there has been increased activity between US forces and the Taliban. This role-playing exercise looks to provide further understanding on how the different actors in the situation would respond to each other time with a realistic backdrop.
Exercise Parameters

        Time: 20 minutes
                                5-minutes to interpret identity and begin building persona
                                15-minutes to converse in their roles
                                5-minute presentation/debrief of key findings and possible link analysis
                                            -Afghan perspective
                                            -US perspective
                               
This will work best if each participant has about a 3-4-minute conversation with each other in their roles about the situation they are all in. Remember the US forces (the CIA CO and the DEA – FAST officer) will speak to each other differently than the conversations that are had between the (Taliban Warlord, the Poppy Harvester, and the HVT).
Roles:

Taliban Warlord
The “Taliban Warlord” has been building out a network of operators across a variety of settlements connecting Kandahar and Kabul. This same route has been frequently utilized for ground movements by conventional US forces. Increases in IED activity have been linked to profits made by poppy cultivation in Kandahar. The warlord is the chief in overseeing the poppy cultivation.
______________________________________
Poppy Field Harvester
The “Poppy Field Harvester” does not know of his fields’ attachment to the overall IED effort against the US conventional forces. He comes from limited means although worked as an interpreter for the UK military for a time in the mid-2000s. His ethnic identity is in direct conflict with the “Taliban Warlord’s” however, has never met the “Taliban Warlord” before.
______________________________________
Known High Value Target (HVT) in Pakistan

Located in Quetta, Pakistan the “HVT” has communicated on numerous instances (both in-person and over radio) with the Afghan located “Taliban Warlord.” The “HVT” has been known to use clan ties to cross the border easily. Is well respected in the region for his charitable work and has extensive access to a network of IED builders in Pakistan.
_____________________________________
CIA Case Officer (CO)
The “CIA CO” has been stationed at the Kabul safe house and Bagram Airbase for just under a two-years. She runs four sources that have informed her that the “Poppy Field Harvester” works for the “Taliban Warlord.” Various other intelligence sources (i.e. – SIGINT, MASINT, GEOINT, etc.) have corroborated the fact that the “Poppy Field Harvester’s” crop has been seen being shipped to a network of settlements between Kandahar and Kabul.
_____________________________________
DEA – Foreign-Deployed Advisory and Support Team Member (FAST)
The “DEA – FAST Member” is on his third tour under five years. On his second tour he was in charge of processing transportation running through the southern Afghan border. On one instance he interdicted a vehicle which was concealing IED components and had traces of poppy residue in the trunk. The seized cargo and communications equipment (i.e. – radios) tied back to the “HVT” in Pakistan. He continues his work as a Counter-narcotics officer and tactical police operations.

For Further Information:

Role-Playing Wikipedia:

World of Warcraft:

POD Network:

Dungeons & Dragons:

Role-playing/Simulation:

Saturday, November 5, 2016

Role-playing is an effective instructional strategy for genetic counseling training: an investigation and comparative study

Synopsis

This research product comes by way of the Third Military Medical University in Chongqing, China. The purpose of the study was to evaluate a program that was designed to test the effectiveness of a role-playing based teaching method for undergrad medical students going into medical genetics fields. The study used 2326 med students who already had a background in medicine from previous years of instruction. As stated, this study was an attempt to evaluate how well role-playing worked in these students’ practice of, in particular, genetic counseling. To do this, the students were tested on 42 medical genetics components such as mitosis, dominance, traits, and diseases before the start of the test to establish a baseline.

The program consisted of studying the theoretical knowledge of medical genetics, then preparing the case scenarios, and playing out the roles in the classrooms. The testing portion made use of a tiered system of new lectures, clinical doctors, and expert teachers to integrate the role-playing methodology. From there, the students devoted as much as 80% of class time to researching the conditions of their illness they were tasked to understand. These lead to strong results. In fact, during the actual exercise, the students adapted their rolls to portray characters with lower education levels to prompt the doctors to explain their conditions in simplified terms, which required a greater understanding of the condition itself and work on professional communication skills.
At the conclusion of the experiment, the students were re-tested in the 42 key fields and the results were compared to the pretests. The results showed increases to the students’ knowledge of genetic medicine. The researcher attributed the increase in subject mastery directly to the exercises. The researchers acknowledge that the study had some limits. First, the student body at the facility was far too great for everyone to have a proper chance as a patient and as a doctor. Also, feedback was limited slightly due to the aforementioned size. In addition, there were several variables such as religion and tradition, insurance, and other interpretations the researchers did not take into account. Ultimately, the purpose of the program was to look at altering how the topic of medicine is taught to students.

Critique

First, it is very interesting to read such a study from an Eastern medical body. The study followed a logical progression of start, test, and end (logical at least for the layperson). The findings were expected. The reason I went with this study was due to it being far removed from the extensive Western body of knowledge on the topic of role-playing’s effects on professional abilities. Even so, they found that role-playing did aid in participants ability to become more effective in their field. While not explicitly translating to forecasting accuracy, it does carry other connotations. Primarily, role-playing helped the students to understand the counseling process better and make them better counselors due to not only seeing things from the doctor’s view, but from the patient’s view as well. This provided greater insight into the process that, through testing, showed a greater mastery of the course. The metrics surrounding the results however are not quite as strong as they could be. If there were a way to make the study more robust, it would possible be via a longitudinal study of how the students go on to assist the medical field. Nevertheless, for the time being, the narrative is encouraging.

It may be a leap, but it’s a fairly easy leap to say that role-playing could indeed make any professional a better professional. What constitutes a better professional is certainly left to the field in question. However, for the intelligence analyst, being able to have a deeper and richer understanding of a situation or the actors therein would offer them a chance to shake cognitive biases and offer a better forecast of likely events.

Source 


Xu, X., Wang, Y., Wang, Y., Song, M., Xiao, W., & Bai, Y. (2016). Role-playing is an effective instructional strategy for genetic counseling training: an investigation and comparative study. BMC Medical Education, 16, 235. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12909-016-0756-4