Collins Ian, World Oil, May 2003, Vol. 224, Issue 5
In this article Collins discusses the issues of managing risks of inorganic scales in deepwater operations. One of the most common forms of inorganic scales are the build-up of calcium carbonate and barium sulfate. These compounds negatively affect drilling equipment, and it is extremely expensive to mitigate against their affects.
According to Collins, British Petroleum developed a process within microsoft excel, based on decision tree analysis to assess the risk of scale development and the potential damage it could cause to a deepwater operation. Two parameters are quantified in assessing scale risk, first the probability of scale formation and second the consequences. The probability of scale damage is quantified with a number between zero to one. Zero meaning no chance of happening and one meaning its certain to happen. After a probability and consequence are paired, then a value is assigned to the risk it represents.
Once the level of risk is established then a decision tree is presented and the branches are given a cost benefit analysis based on the risk they grew out of.
Another interesting application of DT analysis. It, too seems to be fairly simple, though and has some more or less reliable numbers associated with it. Is this a fundamental element of DTs? DO they have to have numbers? Can those numbers be squishy?
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