Summary
The Delphi technique is a common method
used to gather data from a variety of different professional fields, and is
designed to achieve a convergence of opinion on a specific issue through group
communication. This technique is well suited as a method for consensus-building
by using questionnaires delivered by multiple iterations to collect data from participants.
Participant selection, time frames for conducting and completing the study, the
possibility of low response rates, and unintentionally guiding feedback from
respondent groups are issues that need to be accounted for when using the
Delphi method.
The Delphi technique was originally
designed by Dalkey and Helmer at the Rand Corporation in the 1950s in order to
solicit data on specific issues for the purpose of goal setting, policy
investigation, or predicting the occurrence of future events. According to
Delbecq, Van de Ven, and Gustafason (1975), the Delphi technique can be used to
achieve the following objectives:
1.
Determine or develop a range of
possible program alternatives.
2.
Explore or expose underlying
assumptions or information leading to different judgments.
3.
Seek out information which may
generate a consensus on the part of the respondent group.
4.
Correlate informed judgments on a
topic spanning a wide range of disciplines.
5.
Educate the respondent group as to
the diverse and interrelated aspects of the topic.
Unlike other data gathering
techniques, the Delphi technique utilizes multiple iterations (feedback
processes) designed to develop a consensus on a specific topic. The feedback
process allows and encourages all participants to reassess their initial
judgments about the information provided in previous iterations. Other characteristics
of the technique is the ability to provide anonymity to respondents, a controlled
feedback process, and the suitability of a variety of statistical analysis
techniques to interpret the data.
1.
Anonymity is one of the strongest
characteristic and advantage of the technique, as it prevents stronger
personalities from drowning out timid individuals, and prevents coercion and
manipulation.
2.
Controlled feedback is designed to
reduce the effect of common communication that occurs during group discussions
that derails the original purpose of the discussion.
3.
Statistical analysis techniques
ensures each opinion is represented equally after each iteration, and reduces
pressure to succumb to group conformity.
The Delphi Process
The Delphi technique can be employed
until a consensus is reached, however, several researchers indicate 3
iterations are sufficient to collect information and reach consensus in most
scenarios. The following guidelines show 4 rounds in order to present an
example of the process when more data is needed.
Round 1: The
technique begins with an open-ended questionnaire that serves as the
cornerstone of gathering information about a specific topic from the participants.
After the investigators (facilitators) collect each participant’s responses, a
well-structured questionnaire is created. The well-structured questionnaire is
used as the survey in round 2.
Round 2: Each participant
receives a second questionnaire, and reviews the topics summarized by the
investigators. The summarizations are based off the information the participants
provided in the first round. The participants also rate or order each topic in
order to establish priorities. The process of establishing priorities
identifies agreements or disagreements among the participants.
Round 3: Each
participant receives a third questionnaire that includes all the topics and
ratings summarized from the previous round. The participants are asked to
revise their judgements, or specify why they won’t change their answers.
Round 4: In
the final round, each participant receives another questionnaire with the
remaining topics, ratings, minority opinions and topics that reached a
consensus.
The most important process of the
Delphi technique is selecting participants. According to various researchers,
the three groups most qualified to be participants in a Delphi method are:
1: Top management decision makers
who will utilize the outcomes of the Delphi study.
2: Professional staff members
together with their support team.
3: Respondents to the Delphi questionnaire whose judgements
are being sought.
Critique
Though the Delphi technique is used
regularly in various professional settings, it seems to be extremely
situational. One of the many elements that are needed to ensure the Delphi
technique is employed properly is time. Depending on the number of the
participants and the data being evaluated, it may take several days or even
weeks to complete the technique. Other methodologies can be used in place of
the Delphi technique that would likely result in the same quality of
information, but with less time. The technique also has other potential
shortcomings, like low response rates, which have to be accounted for. Striking
a balance between the requested data, number of participants and timeframe,
appears to be key element when deciding to utilize the methodology.
Source:
Hsu, Chia-Chien & Sandford,
Brian A. (2007). The Delphi Technique: Making Sense of Consensus. Practical Assessment Research &
Evaluation, 12(10). Available online: http://pareonline.net/getvn.asp?v=12&n=10
Posts
You mention one of the most important elements needed to ensure the technique is employed properly is time. Does the article identify an ideal amount of time for the Delphi technique to work most effectively?
ReplyDeleteThe author states that the timeframe necessary to employ the technique effectively varies depending on how many people are participating. Thus, the timeframe needs to be evaluated before the technique is used for two reasons: to ensure everyone can participate until the technique is completed, and the information that is pursued doesn’t have a suspense date. In essence, there isn’t a specified amount of time the Delphi technique needs to be effective, as long as the purpose of technique is accomplished while controlling for the variables mentioned in the article. My critique of the Delphi technique is that sometimes it may take too long to complete, and during the time Delphi is being employed, other techniques can be used that take up less time.
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting this study used 3 rounds, much of the others I've seen used only 2. I do think it's better to use 3 if you have the time and resources to do so.
ReplyDelete3 rounds is usual how long the technique lasts, 2 rounds seem short as it doesn't allow the participants to change their answers or provide reasoning why they won't change their mind.
DeleteWell stated. You mentioned that time to implement this technique was one of it's key weaknesses. I would also say that the preparation of the data and questions is also a challenge. When developing our example scenario, we found it rather difficult to apply this technique without a data set.
ReplyDelete