Morphological Analysis
This technique helps generate ideas.
In this example, this technique helps establishes a vegetable collection system.
The analysts set up a table and incorporates the vegetables and options by collating
them into a single matrix. This set up helps analyst see all of the ideas
together. When building the table analysts should, “try to reduce the number of
generated ideas from the lateral thinking diagram into those that really are
the most suitable.” The table will help the analyst visualize the various systems
that will combine to the final product.
Figure 1 is the Morphological Table for a vegetable collection system. This chart shows how the Generated Alternatives are formed into a matrix with images to help supplement the variable. Analysts then begin to formulate a path in order to develop a design or scenario. This step is depicted by Figure 2.
According to the author, analysts are
now at a stage to begin concept design. For starters, “the first few concept
designs should follow different routes through the Morphological Matrix, that
is why you have compiled it. Do not ignore it. In this instance;”
Concept 1 could be – scoop > conveyor belt > water from well > bowl > track system > wind blown
Concept 2 could be – triangular plow > rotating mover > water from well > wheel > hand push
Concept 3 could be - scoop > conveyor belt > square mesh > wheel > hand push
Figure 1 is the Morphological Table for a vegetable collection system. This chart shows how the Generated Alternatives are formed into a matrix with images to help supplement the variable. Analysts then begin to formulate a path in order to develop a design or scenario. This step is depicted by Figure 2.
Concept 1 could be – scoop > conveyor belt > water from well > bowl > track system > wind blown
Concept 2 could be – triangular plow > rotating mover > water from well > wheel > hand push
Concept 3 could be - scoop > conveyor belt > square mesh > wheel > hand push
Analysts
should be able to produce at least three well-considered
concepts. These are then annotated and developed to a level that is distinguishable
as an acceptable solution or key assumption.
Critique
This
method leaves a clear audit trail about how the judgments were reached and it reduces
the chance the events will play out in a way that the analyst has not
previously imagined. Although it, allows analysts to identify intelligence gaps,
it may yield too many possibilities. Morphological analysis could also be
confusing. It is effective when used early in an analytic product to generate
ideas.
Posts
I agree with your comment about leaving an audit trail, it is very important to document the process, and the matrix and paths through it would be very simple to justify to a DM. However, your statement about yielding too many possibilities can be resolved by using a computer-based approach which can not only develop thousands of possible scenarios, but can also highlight which scenarios are most likely and which aspects of each category are most central.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you on the computer based approach. It would help eliminate some of that cognitive bias. Also, I think that an ACH would be a good follow through technique.
DeleteAnalysts who might be interested in using a computerized version of Morphological Analysis are referred to the Swedish Morphology Society (www.swemorph.com). This website has detailed guidance and examples of the use of Morphological Analysis for futures research, disaster risk management, complex sociotechnical problems, policy research, and other problems comparable to those faced by intelligence analysts (Heuer p. 121).
DeleteIt might seem kind of silly in the grand scheme of things, but I actually like the pictures used in this article's matricies. It definately helps make the whole idea behind morphological analysis easier to grasp since you are able to interpret it visually.
ReplyDeleteDan, thank you for the comment. This was easy to follow. I also think that because the simplicity makes it a good idea generation technique.
DeleteDoes the author explain why analysts should be able to produce at least three well-considered concepts?
ReplyDeleteThe author does not explain why analysts should be able to produce at least three well considered concepts, but I infer that if the table did not produce results then there is an issue with your problem statement or end. Also, since Morphological Analysis is generally used early in an analytic
Deleteproject, it is intended to identify all the possibilities, not to drill deeply into any
specific possibility (Heuer p. 119).
I totally agree with your final sentence in your critique. And, I want to add one more thing to that sentence: It also resembles to mental modeling what we do at the beginning of intelligence processes since MA also lays out possible options (literally everything that is possible).
ReplyDelete