Summary
This is a book chapter. It is like a user's manual of various
techniques that can be utilized in strategic and competitive analysis. And the
authors describe event and timeline (E&T) analysis as a group of related
techniques that display events sequentially in a visual manner. Successful
application of this technique can uncover important trends about a firm’s
competitive environment and serve as an early-warning function by highlighting when a competitor or another market player is straying from its normal course
of behavior.
The authors also assert that this technique can be very
beneficial when an analyst is overwhelmed by big data by creating a chronological
order. This may facilitate laying out the patterns.
Strengths and
Advantages
·
It is a very user friendly technique that is
most useful in answering “when is (X event) going to happen?”
·
It is not hard to master this technique. There
are also many software applications that can support analysts. And these
programs are inexpensive.
·
It is good to use this technique when there are
many information that spread over a long period of time.
·
Often used as a planning aid. It can be
complementary to other analysis techniques. Therefore, its outputs can be
inputs for further analyses.
Weaknesses and
Limitations
·
Since there is many information, the technique
requires analysts to determine which event should or should not be included in
the timeline. This may yield to not putting critical events into the timeline.
And this directly affects the findings.
·
Multiple starting points can be generated.
Because an analyst may not want to start the timeline to early not to put
massive data inputs or he/she may not want to start it too late not to miss any
milestone.
·
E&T analysis needs to be done well in
advance of key decisions or events. However, the determination of using E&T
tends to be after a key event has occurred.
·
It is generally very subjective to determine the
causations or distinguishing evidences from assumptions. Any error, especially
in causations, may result in misleading patterns.
Application Process
of the Technique
1-
Plot the Target Firm’s History of Key Events on
a Line (the authors elaborate this step in 10 subsets)
2-
Develop a chronological Table of Events
3-
Develop an Events Matrix
4-
Analyze the event and causal factors
Critique
The authors demonstrated finely the strengths, weaknesses
and application of the technique. I think this can be a good tool for visualizing or
putting the milestone data in an order. However, classifying data as milestone or unimportant is very subjective and
therefore, the process is open to errors. And since we
all know that correlation doesn’t mean causation, the patterns we generated may inherent false inferences to some extent. And the dimensions of that ‘extent’
will define our results’ forecasting accuracy. To recap, I would be more
careful while using timeline analysis with the intention of extracting patterns
from that. Other than that, it could be useful in visualizing the existing
data.
Source: https://books.google.com/books?id=BRIoBgAAQBAJ&pg=PA265&lpg=PA265&dq=timeline+analysis+application&source=bl&ots=8md2jtFaZa&sig=2KudaNdWXX0Qtv8k1FqPp0D5ibQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CD4Q6AEwBWoVChMIuZqzl6OOyQIVCVcaCh137ABQ#v=onepage&q=timeline%20analysis%20application&f=false
Posts
I really like the steps you posted, however the event matrix step doesn’t seem to flow from step 2. How does the event matrix relate to the chronological table of events? Are steps 2 and 3 separate from each other and present data in different ways, or is the event matrix a subset of the table of events? Nonetheless, the events matrix seems to be a good tool for developing an industries best practices model.
ReplyDeleteOleg, the authors give different examples for each steps and therefore, it seems like it isn't flowing step by step. But, in real life example no doubt that steps would be more relevant with each other. In step 2, an analyst must prepare that chart for every rivals. But, in step 3, the analyst merges them into one chart to see them together.
DeleteThat clarifies the issues, because the two seem completely different, but necessary for the whole process.
DeleteErtugrul, I completely agree with your critique regarding correlation and causation. I think one of the major weaknesses of timeline analysis is that in looking at an event, an analyst cannot be certain that the previous events lists caused the event under analysis. In other words, an analyst could list multiple events on a timeline in their correct order, but these events may have nothing to do with one another, or they may all be causal factors - this analysis does not provide a way to determine that factor.
ReplyDeleteAgreed, I guess it is up to the analyst to make that judgment, but having the proper background on the topic is absolutely necessary or you have a severe risk of falsely believing correlation means causation.
DeleteAndrew, I agree with your assessment as well, but I would add that analyzing a series of events can point towards a factor that caused said event. A single event timeline may not determine causation, however a forecast can be drawn from multiple timelines on similar issues.
DeleteOleg, it can, but it is a risky proposition to do it with timeline analysis by itself.
DeleteOleg, how can we definitively identify the causal event? What if another event caused the causal event? Shouldn't that then be the event we trace back to? I think this is one of this technique's weaknesses, without a boundary, we could continue to analyze event further into the past, which only increases our margin for error.
DeleteI feel like this is a chapter very well suited for our class's purposes. When you say that E&T analysis is usually done after a key event or decision, do you mean that this is a tool which people turn to after they have been blindsided and are looking for an explanation for what happened? And are the authors suggesting it is better done in advance to use for predictive capabilities?
ReplyDeleteYes Dan, the authors assert that people generally use this technique after an important event happened and effected them negatively and they try to form a causation between two; and authors list this as a limitation/weakness. But, the chapter suggests that it would be more useful if done before critical events for strategic decision making processes.
DeleteI liked you idea about E&T Analysis being used to formulate a starting point. I think it's a good tool to start in a direction. I like you however question its ability to improve forecasting accuracy by itself.
ReplyDeleteI agree all the comments about the technique. Ertugrul, you did a good job by identifying the steps, strengths and weaknesses. Besides, I want to make it clear whether you see this technique as a method or modifier. As I understand, you see it as a modifier by saying it is often used as a planning aid and it can be complementary to other analysis techniques. Am I wrong?
ReplyDeleteIn fact, the book chapter identifies it as a technique and recommend to use it at the very beginnings of strategic decision making processes. From my perspective, it is a tool, be it modifier, that visualizes, arranges, and puts the events into an order.
DeleteI think your article was very interesting in comparison to mine. Mine focused on the projections of trends rather than specific events. Also yours seemed to be more of a descriptive analysis where my article took a statistical approach. In terms of forecasting complex problems, which analysis should take precedence? Statistical or descriptive?
ReplyDelete