Background:
The purpose of this study is to examine the
trends within liver cirrhosis mortality and its relationship to alcohol and
tobacco consumption. Pulling data from several countries aids this study in an
effort to improve forecasting accuracy for alcohol consumption and future
mortality rates for liver cirrhosis.
Methods
and Discussion:
For this paper, trends were calculated using
Joinpoint regression analysis. This type of regression analysis provides the
beginning and end results for a single trend. The data provided throughout the
study was run through this regression analysis for the purposes of discovering
increasing or decreasing trends in liver cirrhosis. Within this study, trend
analysis revealed a couple key results. First, the decrease starting in 1969
among females and in 1977 among males concerning liver cirrhosis mortality, is
related to decreases in alcohol consumption starting in those same years.
Lastly, the same results were related to decreased in tobacco consumption
starting in 1972. Figure 1 below illustrates that since the 1970’s there has
been a decrease in liver cirrhosis mortality while at the same time alcohol and
tobacco sales and alcohol treatment has also been on the decline.
Authors John Ulrich and Monika Hanke state that
this approach offers less bias compared to studies using national survey data. However,
this study also displayed many assumptions about what may and may not be the
cause for decreased trends in liver cirrhosis. The authors did not go into
detail about what actually accounted for the decreasing trend, rather it
appeared that they gave their best educated guess as a result of the analysis.
Source:
Posts
It seems like trend analysis may be a useful method in analyzing the relationship between liver cirrhosis and alcohol and tobacco consumption. Perhaps, though, the study should have expanded its analysis to other variables so that it did not have to make assumptions.
ReplyDeleteYes I agree with you. The study should have included other variables to avoid the assumptions it made.
DeleteCharles, did this study by chance come out and delineate which countries were incorporated into the sample? When I was searching for studies to review, I noticed a series of studies along this same vein which were referencing countries who may "culturally" have a higher predisposition to both alcohol and tobacco consumption than others.
ReplyDeleteYes Thomas, the article was geared more toward Germany. Otherwise, it did make several references to the United States.
DeleteChad, this is an excellent example of trend analysis. I think the main reason the researchers could only guess as to the actual cause of the decreasing trend is because correlation does not imply causation. The causal reason was likely outside the scope of their study and would be of interest for future research.
ReplyDeleteI would agree with Hank. Also you are studying something in the late 1960s and into the 1970s. All one has is the raw data on hand and not necessarily access to further knowledge that could alter assumptions made. Overall I found this piece interesting, and would like to see maybe an application of it in the modern day.
ReplyDeleteCharles, interesting article you found. Did the authors make any attempts to predict future levels of liver cirrhosis or did they just look at the available data at a given point in time and run regressions to see if they could find something to predict what they already knew happened? It seems like they already had a lot of data at their disposal. I'm not surprised deaths decreased as sales decreased. Seems pretty intuitive.
ReplyDelete-Eric S.
The authors did hint toward forecasting future levels of liver cirrhosis, but they did not go into much detail on this.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSo is possible that HIV Disease can be cured because I have been scammed so many times not until I came across this great man herbalist Dr Akhigbe who helped me at first I never believe all this comment and post about him and I was very sick because I have been infected with HIV/AIDS for the past two year,just last 2 months I keep reading the testimony about this man named Dr Akhigbe they said that the man is so powerful he have cured different type of diseases, I keep monitoring his post of some people about this man and I found out that he was real so I decided to give him a trial I contacted him for help and he said he was going to help me get my cure that all I needed to do was to send him money to prepare the medication after which it will be sent to me via DHL courier delivery services which I did to my greatest surprise the medication was sent to me he gave me instructions to follow on how to drink it that after three weeks I should go for check up,after taking the medicine and follow his instruction after three weeks I went back to the hospital for another test, at first I was shocked when the doctor told me that I was negative I ask the doctor to check again and the result was still the same negative that was how I free from HIV VIRUS at of the shock I decided to come and share my own testimony with you for those who think there is no cure for HIV VIRUS the cure as finally come' out stop doubting and contact Dr Akhigbe via email drrealakhigbe@gmail.com he will help you out you can also whatsApp him via +2348142454860 he is also perfect in curing DIABETICS,HERPES,HIV/AIDS, ;ALS, CANCER , MALARIA , BACTERIA DIARRJHEA, MENINGITIS,HEPATITIS A AND B,ASTHMA, HEART DISEASE, CHRONIC DISEASE. NAUSEA VOMITING OR DIARRHEA, KIDNEY DISEASE,, SCHIZOPHRENIA, LUPUS,EXTERNAL INFECTION, COMMON COLD, JOINT PAIN, OSTEOPOROSIS, RABIESRHEUMATISM, THYROID, GALLSTONE, COLD & FLU, CIRRHOSIS, DENGUE FEVER, EPILEPSY,STROKE,TUBERCULOSIS ,STOMACH DISEASE. ECZEMA, PROGERIA, EATING DISORDER, LOWER RESPIRATORY INFECTION. etc believe me that deadly disease is not longer a deadly sentence because dr akhigbe has the cure.the godfather of herbal root.email: drrealakhigbe@gmail.com whatsapp number. +2349010754824 website: https://drrealakhigbe.weebly.com
ReplyDelete