Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Summary of Findings: Intuition (3.5 out of 5 Stars)

Note: This post represents the synthesis of the thoughts, procedures and experiences of others as represented in the articles read in advance (see previous posts) and the discussion among the students and instructor during the Advanced Analytic Techniques class at Mercyhurst University, in September 2018 regarding Intuition as an Analytic Method, specifically. This technique was evaluated based on its overall validity, simplicity, flexibility and its ability to effectively use unstructured data.

You don’t really know, but you know. Burke & Miller (1999:92) define intuition as "a cognitive conclusion based on a decision maker’s previous experiences and emotional inputs.” We can use intuition to make decisions or come to conclusions without using calculated logic or conscious reasoning. While there is no prescription for achieving expert intuition, a wide breadth of knowledge spanning multiple disciplines can help individuals calibrate their skills.

·       Autonomic/Fast
·       Accurate in domains that are well understood by the “intuitor”
·       Can be improved through deliberate practice

·       Difficult to capture the process
·       Underlying assumption that relevant experience is necessary
·       Prone to confirmation biases
·       Skewed by “hindsight” logic and rationalization

1.     Spend time reading on a topic of interest
2.     Spend time thinking about the topic of interest
3.     Spend time writing out your thoughts on topic of interest

Application of Technique:

Students were presented with a intuition quiz by Buzzfeed (link below). Students were given roughly 10 seconds to answer each question and the class moved through each question collectively. After completing the first question, students were asked to share whether they got the answer right or wrong and asked to justify their choice. Following the discussion on answers, the class moved to the second question, etc. Topics brought up in the discussions included the role experience, familiarity, guessing, emotions, and the effectiveness of these factors in choosing the right answer. The class discussion concluded that although the Buzzfeed quiz is not the best test of intuition, it still introduced the concept of using intuition and the factors to consider. Future applications of intuition that the class suggested are calibration and Fermi estimate exercises.

For Further Information:

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