Note:
This post represents the synthesis of the thoughts, procedures and experiences
of others as represented in the articles read in advance (see previous posts)
and the discussion among the students and instructor during the Advanced
Analytic Techniques class at Mercyhurst University, in September 2018 regarding
Intuition as an Analytic Method, specifically. This technique was evaluated
based on its overall validity, simplicity, flexibility and its ability to
effectively use unstructured data.
Description:
You don’t really know,
but you know. Burke
& Miller (1999:92) define intuition as "a cognitive conclusion based
on a decision maker’s previous experiences and emotional inputs.” We can use
intuition to make decisions or come to conclusions without using calculated
logic or conscious reasoning. While there is no prescription for achieving
expert intuition, a wide breadth of knowledge spanning multiple disciplines can
help individuals calibrate their skills.
Strengths:
·
Autonomic/Fast
·
Accurate
in domains that are well understood by the “intuitor”
·
Can be
improved through deliberate practice
Weaknesses:
·
Difficult
to capture the process
·
Underlying
assumption that relevant experience is necessary
·
Prone
to confirmation biases
·
Skewed
by “hindsight” logic and rationalization
How-To:
1.
Spend time reading on a
topic of interest
2.
Spend time thinking
about the topic of interest
3.
Spend time writing out
your thoughts on topic of interest
Application
of Technique:
Students were presented with a
intuition quiz by Buzzfeed (link below). Students were given roughly 10 seconds
to answer each question and the class moved through each question collectively.
After completing the first question, students were asked to share whether they got
the answer right or wrong and asked to justify their choice. Following the
discussion on answers, the class moved to the second question, etc. Topics
brought up in the discussions included the role experience, familiarity,
guessing, emotions, and the effectiveness of these factors in choosing the
right answer. The class discussion concluded that although the Buzzfeed quiz is
not the best test of intuition, it still introduced the concept of using
intuition and the factors to consider. Future applications of intuition that
the class suggested are calibration and Fermi estimate exercises.
For Further Information:
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment