Role Thinking: Standing in Other People's Shoes to Forecast Decisions in Conflicts

Summary:
This article published in 2011 by Kesten Green, Senior Lecturer at Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science at the University of South Australia and Scott Armstrong, Professor of Marketing at The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania highlights the significant differences between simulated interactions and a term they coined "role thinking" on the accuracy of decision forecasts in novel situations. They used an experimental design to conclude that asking groups of people to think about the roles and interactions influencing the reactions of a protagonist in a given novel conflict situation to forecast protagonist decisions is an ineffective forecasting technique. Forecasts from role thinking are unlikely to be accurate due to the difficulty of analyzing complex interactions between different protagonists with different roles in a manner that accurately represents the conflict in the absence of experiencing the complex interactions. 

Note that the authors prefer the term "simulated interaction" instead of "role playing" to refer to the method of forecasting people's decisions by simulating the situation using interacting role players because the term "role playing" is used to refer to various techniques with purposes other than forecasting. The authors find that simulated interactions provide much better forecasting accuracy than unaided judgment and role thinking, particularly in novel conflict situations.

Evidence from previous findings indicate that much better forecasting accuracy for the decisions the protagonist in a given novel conflict situation will make is attained by prompting groups of people to adopt roles in addition to simulating the interactions between protagonist groups with divergent interests. The decision the protagonists in each group elect to make in the simulated interaction is taken as a forecast of the actual protagonist's decision. The authors highlight that simulating novel conflict situations faced by divergent protagonists using interacting role playing members solves the absence of experience problem according to prior research from the same authors using the same conflicts utilized in this experiment. 

The authors tested role thinking in an experimental design consisting of forecasts for the decisions of the protagonist of a given conflict from an expert sample and a novice sample. The accuracy of the role thinking forecasts were compared to chance in addition to the accuracy of unaided judgment and simulated interactions from previous studies utilizing the same conflict scenarios. The authors obtained 101 role thinking forecasts for nine conflicts from 27 Naval postgraduate students (the expert sample) and 107 role thinking forecasts from 103 second year organizational behavior students (the novice sample). The results are illustrated below: 

http://tinyurl.com/oeebksr

The average forecasting accuracy from the novice sample and the expert sample were only marginally better than chance, which was 28% versus the 33% accuracy from the novice forecasts and the 31% accuracy from the expert forecasts. Previous research from Green and Armstrong using the same conflict situations found forecasting accuracy of 60% when using the simulated interaction method instead of the role thinking method.

In the role thinking experiments, participants were provided with descriptions of some or all of the situations and of all the associated roles. Participants were prompted to predict what actions each party in the situation would prefer and assess how likely it is that each party's preferred decision will actually occur. Each prompt had a list of between three and six decisions that the researchers believed could plausibly have been made in each situation. 

In previous simulated interaction experiments with forecasting accuracy of 60%, participants were divided into groups and assigned information only on their own role. Participants were prompted to read their role description, put on a name badge for the role, and adopt the role for the duration of the simulation. Participants were free to meet with others as often as they would like to reach a decision. Each group's decision was taken as a forecast of the actual protagonist's decision. In addition to the 60% accuracy finding, the forecasts from simulated interactions were more accurate than the role thinking forecasts for all nine conflict situations. The authors also point out that neither statistical nor casual models have been found to be feasible for predicting decisions people make in novel conflict situations therefore decision makers rely on judgmental methods.

Critique: 
The forecasts from the role thinking experiment were derived from individuals while the forecasts from the simulated interaction experiments were derived from group forecasts. The authors acknowledge that a key assumption driving their analysis of the ineffectiveness of role thinking versus simulated interactions is that forecasting accuracy from group role thinking forecasts would differ little from the individual role thinking forecasts in this experiment due to both unaided judgment and role thinking forecasts differing little from chance. One way to test this assumption is implementing an experiment where different groups of participants arrive at a group forecast using role thinking then comparing those results to the simulated interaction experiments. This would also be a more consistent representation of what occurs when a group of people are tasked to engage in role thinking together on a team. 

In Table 2, the expert sample in the unaided judgment experiments and the expert sample in the role thinking experiment are qualitatively different in that the unaided judgment expert sample participants were from academia and professional conflict management and forecasting organizations while the expert sample participants in the role thinking experiment were Naval postgraduate students. However, the authors point out that there is little evidence that top experts can perform judgmental tasks better than generalists. In addition, the naval postgraduates had experience in conflicts over pay negotiations and commercial takeovers, the authors suggest that knowledge of conflicts from one domain is likely to transfer over to other domains involving predicting human behavior in conflict situations. 

One thing I did not see addressed is best practice for developing effective scenarios, roles, and choices for simulated interactions when the conflict being assessed is a current event. I estimate that the procedures for developing effective simulated interactions is as much an art as it is a science, especially when the simulated scenario in question is a model of a current novel situation where incomplete or intentionally deceptive information is an issue. Using simulated interactions with current conflicts and events as opposed to historical situations where the outcome is known by the developers of the simulated interaction in advance adds a layer of complexity to developing the simulation interaction requiring further study. 

Source- 
Green, K. and Armstrong, J.S. (2011). Role Thinking: Standing in Other People's Shoes to Forecast Decisions in Conflicts. International Journal of Forecasting. Vol. 27(1). p. 69-80.

Skills Development using role-play

Introduction:
In the article, Deepa Rao discusses the usefulness of role-play in developing first-year pharmacy students’ patient-care skills.  Rao believes that desired learning outcomes can be achieved if learning activities focus on engaging students by providing opportunities and support for the students to build on their knowledge, actively participate, self-critique, and practice. The author writes that role-play can be a useful tool in developing essential skills, including communication, information-gathering, making assessments and recommendations, and counseling.

Summary:
The author describes a role-play model that was developed and implemented in workshops across two semesters of a year long pharmaceutical course at an Australian University.  In the role-play students performed different roles, including a pharmacist and a patient and documented the results of each interaction.  

The role-play was constructed as a category role-switch exercise.  The exercise will help the students to understand a concept by taking on the role of another person or entity.  The role-play exercise focuses on developing and practicing skills through acting out predetermined scenarios, with the goal of providing the student an almost real life experience that is as realistic as possible.  The exercise allowed for multiple tasks to be undertaken in a single interaction, allowing for the simultaneous development of several skills.

The goals for the the role-play exercise was derived from the Pharmaceutical Society of Australia’s Professional Practice Standards and Competency Standards.  The goals included:

• Developing effective communication skills, including active listening skills.
• Accurately gather patient history using a structured process
• Apply knowledge about medications to make appropriate recommendations
• Accurately document patient interaction
• Develop professional attitude

The students were surveyed at the completion of the role play exercise.  It was found that the role-play exercise improved the students abilities to:

• Effectively communicate and frame appropriate questions
• Gather patient history
• Develop professional attitudes

The students did not show an improvement in their ability to accurately document patient interaction.  

Overall, the students believed that the exercise helped them develop core competencies in pharmacy practice.  Suggestions for improving the role-play exercise included increasing the number of cases from the 10 that were run, include a wider variety of cases, and have smaller group sizes.  

Conclusion:
This article demonstrates how role play can be used to engage students to actively teach and be sensitive to another’s position.  The techniques used in this article can be applied to the intelligence field.  Role play exercises can be constructed to teach intelligence analysts and engage them in considering the positions and motivations of others.  If role play exercises are properly constructed and executed it could allow an analyst to properly assess a given situation and reach a conclusion to anticipate an outcome.  

Source:
Rao, D. (2011). Skills development using role-play in a first-year pharmacy practice course. American Journal of Pharmaceutical Education, 75(5), pp 1-10.

Role Playing in Concept Design of Mobile Services and Devices

Introduction

Authors Giulio Iacucci, Kari Kuutti and Mervi Ranta’s article On the Move with a Magic Thing: Role Playing in Concept Design of Mobile Services and Devices discusses using two participatory techniques including role playing to investigate the end-user’s experience of a new product in a possible wireless network in order to link use scenarios with the generative design process. The first technique uses a role-playing game, where users play in a representation of the environment using toys. The second technique, SPES (Situated and Participative Enactment of Scenarios), users are followed during their normal activities and provided with very simple mock-ups.

Summary

For the role playing scenario, participants play roles or act as themselves in given situations. The situations and the roles are taken from the user studies or else are invented. The players imagine what kind of devices or services could support their mobility and communication, and they discuss, and act out the ideas in the given situation. Each session was opened by an introduction with which to state the goals and to inform the players about the game material. The games lasted about 2 hours. The authors designed the game for 5 participants, in which 3 users were actual players and 2 were designers who helped keep the game moving. One designer also acted as a game master, monitoring the game and seeing that the rules were followed. In terms of environment, the authors prepared 5 different places that players would probably visit with their toy characters during the game, which each had incident cards would introduce some surprises to the game. After the play, the users form small groups engaging in several conversations about the concept armed with a full understanding of the implications, operations and expectations of what the product would do.

The second technique, SPES, the authors provided users with very simple mock-ups of future devices. The users use the mock-ups to envision ideas of services and product features acting out use scenarios as interesting situations arise. A designer shadowed the user for one or two days in his/her normal activities and documented with a diary to record the user’s activities.

Conclusion

The two techniques described yielded different types of product concepts. The role-playing games seem to be appropriate for services involving group interaction and dynamic incidents. On the other hand, SPES helped to consider also less dynamic activities like listening to music or checking news on the web. Moreover, the scenarios extracted from SPES are more detailed because it is possible to record realistic contextual information. The two techniques provided a platform which helps the designer and the users discover use scenarios taking into account the various aspects of mobility and the reality of human action.

Source

Iacucci, G., Kuutti, K., & Ranta, M. (2000). On the move with a magic thing: Role playing in concept design of mobile services and devices. Designing Interactive Systems, Retrieved from http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.101.8900

Military Role-Playing in Scenario Simulations - AW-VTT Technology

Introduction:
This short report from the U.S. Army Research Development & Engineering Command (RDECOM) Simulation Training & Technology Center (STTC) discusses some of the functions and advantages gained by using human role-players in a virtual-world setting to enhance training for real-world situations such as dealing with asymmetrical warfare in the Middle East. While it references software that is, by now, likely complete, the cited advantages of role-playing in military training remain valid.

Summary:
One of the most important components of simulation-based military training is creating a set of believable enemy-actors capable of acting with enough realism to enhance training and allow members of the military to learn what to expect in certain situation and against certain opponents. Asymmetric warfare such as terrorism and insurgency are unusually hard to model due to high levels of unpredictability and frequently-changing rules of conflict based on psychological factors and values foreign to the mindset of most U.S. forces.

Simulating enemy actors in such a setting is extremely difficult to do through AI and programmed rules, so this article looks into the use of human role-players in a "very-large-scale, distributed, persistent, immersive virtual environment" as both civilians and opposing forces. In particular, the paper describes the Asymmetric Warfare - Virtual Training Technology (AW-VTT) in development by the U.S. Army RDECOM STTC. The AW-VTT system is intended to allow for complex scenario-simulation such as crowds of varying temperament and ambush-infested convoy missions. One goal of the software is to allow role-playing participation from anywhere through standard personal-computers and an internet connection. The AW-VTT synchronizes the real-life user's stance, expressions, breathing patterns, conversational gestures, with suitable equivalents for their avatar. Finally, role-players' avatars are equipped for the objectives at hand - for example, terrorist avatars may be given explosive devices and goals of targeted destruction.

The ultimate goal of the AW-VTT technology is to enable trainers and trainees to quickly and easily create and run through iterations of a vast array of scenarios, offering a chance for trainees to experience and rehearse responses to the level of surprise and adaptability found only in human opponents. Possibilities include developing situational awareness based on appearance, behavior, or movement patterns, practicing interpreting foreign-languages and gestural cues, testing the operational coordination of a geographically-scattered cohort, and numerous others. Through role-playing to practice these skills in "dangerous" virtual scenarios, the U.S. Army hopes to mitigate the risks and losses brought on when soldiers encounter the real thing out in the field.

Source:
Comer, B., Gehorsam, R., Grosse, J., & Kusumoto, L. (2004). "Employing human role-players in simulation-based training for assymetrical and unconventional warfare." U.S. Army Research
Development & Engineering Command (RDECOM) Simulation Training
& Technology Center. Available at http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433434

Summary of Findings (White Team): Role Playing (4 out of 5 Stars)

Note: This post represents the synthesis of the thoughts, procedures and experiences of others as represented in the 16 articles read in advance (see previous posts) and the discussion among the students and instructor during the Advanced Analytic Techniques class at Mercyhurst College on 29 April 2010 regarding Role Playing specifically. This technique was evaluated based on its overall validity, simplicity, flexibility and its ability to effectively use unstructured data.

Description:

Role-playing has been used and continues to be employed as a tool to facilitate training in vocational and interpersonal skills and as a method of active learning in educational and commercial settings. Though there is no single type of role-played exercise, the term is best applied where the teaching and learning experience rests with a form of `as-if’ experimentation.

The methodology is a recognized and successful tool in behavioral assessment, which encourages the application of the technique. In crisis negotiation role playing, which was done in today's exercise, participants used communication skills and reasoning to resolve crisis situations. Results from Role Playing are qualitative results that allow a detailed view of the particular scenario and possible outcomes. The White Team recognizes this technique as a 'method' as opposed to a 'modifier'.

Strengths:

• Allows for development of ideas and thoughts in a controlled environment.
• Provides an opportunity for active learning in a safe, low-risk environment.
• Allows for the application to multiple different types of situations or persons.
• Can be easily conducted as a low cost exercise.
• Simulates the emotions of an actual event which engages participants in the process.

Weaknesses:

• Participants may not take the exercise seriously.
• Participants may act as a caricature of the person they area assigned, rather than respond as the person.
• Participants may have a use different decision-making processes due to their social upbringing.
• A false confidence in their understanding of the role they are playing may result in participant overconfidence in their predictive ability of the person's action.
• The situation in which the participants are placed may be missing critical elements of reality present in emergency situations.

How To:

• Begin with a historical background and basic understanding of the topics / issues that is the subject of the role play
• Discuss the problem to be portrayed
• Determine the teams/groups
• Define the roles of the members of the group
• Make sure that the participants are committed to the process.
• Act out the situation, responding spontaneously.
• Evaluate the actions of each player.
• Repeat, taking different courses of action if needed.
• Discuss results and feedback

Application:

Students were presented with a scenario where there was a sinking ship and only 10 people could fit on the life boat. Each student picked a role to play out of a hat and introduced themselves to the group. After all the roles were announced each made their case as to why they should stay on the boat. Some participants voluntarily requested to remain on the sinking ship where others pleaded their individual cases to secure a spot on the life boat. Through this discussion it allowed different conceptual models to emerge that influenced the way decisions were made. We also came to the understanding that in order to role play it is important that all participants take their part seriously as it influences the outcome of the exercise. It is also important to note that value assumptions,mirror imaging and cultural biases are likely to manifest and it is vital to the success of the exercise to mitigate those factors.

Role-Play Training for Negotiators in Diverse Environments

Introduction

The author of this article opens up the discussion by citing facts of the ever increasing stakes for the hostage negotiator in today's complex world. In the wake of the Columbine shootings and the DC sniper events, hostage negotiators must be ever vigilant and better trained. Furthermore, the author states that "By using locations previously unfamiliar to team members and tactical units, commanders may decrease the anxiety associated with a particular environment while also role-playing in a realistic setting".

One Agency's Experience

The majority of the article focuses on one police department in Suffolk County, New York (located on Long Island). The Suffolk County Police Department (SCPD) "is training in a variety of locations and venues to understand and respond more quickly and effectively to a hostage or barricade incident". The SCPD notes that two of the most important factors for carrying out a successful hostage role-play are the planning involved and the chosen location.

In regards to planning, the SCPD says that by consulting with officials at the proposed site, Hostage Negotiation Team (HNT) supervisors can design and implement realistic role-play scenarios based on the unique threat environment. "Role-play scripts and scenarios are designed to provide the best and most realistic training within the limitations of time and personnel available."

Lastly in terms of location, the HNT has sought out sites that have the potential to be hostage situation sites. Some of the sites that the team has trained at include a bank slated for demolition, a local high school (during the summer months), the Suffolk County jail and correctional center, the medical center at the local VA, a university dormitory and a municipal park. All of the role-plays at each of these locations gave the negotiators an idea of how such events could transpire and what the difficulties would be in dealing with each specific situation.

Source
For any further information and for the results of the study, please see "Role Play Training for Negotiators in Diverse Environments" in the FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, written by James R Maher accessed through Academic Search Complete.

Joint Civilian/National Guard Mass Casualty Exercise Provides Model for Preparedness Training

Following criticism of civilian and military response to hurricanes Katrina and Rita, members of the New York Air National Guard and the Central New York Medical Reserve Corps developed plans for a full scale exercise to determine their roles in a mass casualty situation. The Exercise was developed between October 2005 and March 2006. The event was held over two days, with the first day providing a series of partial drills for each section of the groups activities like triage. On the second day a full scale exercise including 350 individuals from over 25 agencies took place. The simulated mass casualty drill involved 32 victims contaminated in a hydrogen fluoride explosion. Following the drill three evaluation sessions were given; one by first responders, one by medical personnel, and a third by military personnel. The exercise was able to identify critical issues in joint military/civilian operations, and provide possible solutions to a number of the identified problems.

Strengths:
-Can identify critical issues in predeveloped plans
-Enables active critical thinking to solve encountered problems
-Can be tailored to fit a specific scale
-Engages participants effectively

Weaknesses:
-Effectiveness can be hampered by personnel not taking it seriously
-Increased possibility of risk to personnel in some scenarios
-May require a large amount of resources
-Requires extensive preparation

Source:
Grant, W., & Secreti, L. (2007). Joint Civilian/National Guard Mass Casualty Exercise Provides Model for Preparedness Training. Military Medicine, 172(8), 806-811. Retrieved from Military & Government Collection database.

The Korean War: A Role-Play to Remember

Introduction

This article is written from a teacher's point of view with an educational context in which the class participates in a role play of the Korean War. The author first discusses the importance of the Korean War and talks about how it is one of the most overlooked American wars to date. She then points out the benefits of using role playing and elaborates on the technique. The author says that "role play generates student interest in the topic and allows students to physically, as well as mentally participate in their own learning".

The Role-Play Itself

Prior to engaging in the role-play, the author recommends stimulating a discussion on the concept of "war". In preparation for the lesson, the teacher should cut out and mount the script cards (found in the appendix of the article), create the role-play roles (U.N., U.S., North Korea, South Korea, etc.) and using masking tape outline the Korean peninsula on the floor of the classroom. The role-play parts that the students will be re-enacting include some historical figures such as Stalin, a KGB agent, France, General MacArthur and the Yalu River to name a few examples. The author recommends that the day of the activity, you as the teacher administer a pre-test to see what the students know about the Korean War. To actually accomplish the role-play the students should follow the directions on the cards but should not break any of the following rules:

1) Do not trade roles; roles are distributed randomly.
2) Attach your role to your chest so it can be seen.
3) When called to particpate read the card that you are given.
4) Read loudly enough so everyone can hear.

Following the role-play the author recommends administering a post-test to see what the students have learned. Furthermore, she advises to conduct a class discussion to see what they thought about the role-play experience and to see what they learned!

Source

For any further information and for the results of the study, please see "The Korean War: A Role-Play to Remember" by Marjori M Krebs accessed through Academic Search Complete.

Role Playing: Applications in Hostage and Crisis Negotiation Skills Training

This article provides an overview of various applications of the role playing are used by the FBI as part of their crisis negotiation training. The article states that role playing is a recognized and successful tool in behavioral assessment, which encourages the application of the technique. In crisis negotiation role playing, participants develop critical active listening skills commonly used to resolve crisis situations. The article highlights a number of role playing tests and activities performed by the FBI. Additionally it highlights a possible future trend in digital applications to crisis negotiation. Validation for the method is limited to studies indicating increased abilities among subject who had undergone extensive role playing.

Types of Role Playing Activities:
-Table top
-Functional
-Partial/Full scale

Strengths:
-Allowed for development of critical skills in a controlled environment
-Enabled critical feedback from supervisor
-provides an engaging learning environment.
-Identifies potential weaknesses

Limitations:
-Cannot account for all real world issues
-Requires a capable confederate force
-Limited field validation (in crisis negotiation)
-Require extensive resources for full scale exercise

Source:
Role Playing: Applications in Hostage and Crisis Negotiation Skills Training
Van Hasselt, Vincent B., Romano, Stephen J., Vecchi, Gregory M.
Behav Modif, Mar 2008; vol. 32: pp. 248-263