Note:
This post represents the synthesis of the thoughts, procedures and experiences
of others as represented in the articles read in advance (see previous posts)
and the discussion among the students and instructor during the Advanced
Analytic Techniques class at Mercyhurst University in November 2018 regarding
Monte Carlo Simulation as an Analytic Technique, specifically. This technique
was evaluated based on its overall validity, simplicity, flexibility and its
ability to effectively use unstructured data.
Description:
Monte
Carlo Simulation is arguably both a method and a modifier by which analysts can
pull together pieces of information in the form of ranges and, through random
sampling of those ranges, produce an estimate. It is a highly flexible method
due to its ability to handle uncertain data from virtually any discipline. The
mental modeling required to piece apart the given problem decreases the
simplicity of the method, but plugging in the ranges themselves is simple
indeed. Monte Carlo Simulations have the capacity to produce a highly accurate
distribution of estimates.
Strengths:
- Applicable
with simple ranges (exact numbers not required)
- Increases
confidence in estimate through statistical analysis
- Simulations
produce a visual statistical distribution
- Allows
analyst to identify collection needs to improve estimate
- Allows
analyst to create an estimate with uncertain data
Weaknesses:
- Qualitative
estimates require coding
- Statistical data can be misleading
- The result of a MC simulation is a numeric range, which
is almost never where the analysis itself will stop
- Challenging to explain to decision-makers
How-To:
- Identify
the variables that are needed to answer the question (See Application of
Technique)
- Can be ranges
or exact numbers
- Enter
the variables into a software program capable of running a Monte Carlo
simulation (Guesstimate, Microsoft Excel, @RISK, etc.)
- Multiply
average outputs of simulations together to produce estimate
- Continue
adding variables and running simulations until question is answered
Application of Technique:
Utilizing
www.getguesstimate.com we presented the group
with a question, “How many Big Mac’s will McDonald’s sell at locations in Erie
in a week?”. The group then created a model to determine the number of
Big Mac’s sold. The group developed a
series of questions with estimate ranges to answer each question.
Pictured below is the model the group created to work through the
question. The arrows connecting boxes
within the model indicate that a formula was used in order to produce an answer
in the form of a range of possible outcomes (i.e. 4.9 McDonald’s in Erie * 400
customers per day = 2000 people visiting McDonald’s in Erie per day)
For
Further Information:
There is a severe error in methodology related to nomenclature in the How-To section (step 1, step 2, etc.)
ReplyDeleteStep 1 is listed twice. I now find myself questioning the validity of the entire article.
your blog is better then others and have more information about the article.i am florima an delhi escorts companion and I love your opinion on the post
ReplyDeleteAerocity Escorts
Connaught Place Escorts
Fantasy Delhi Escorts
Foreigner Delhi Escorts
Local Area Delhi Call Girls
Delhi Sex Services
Local Area Delhi Escorts
Saket Escorts
Saket Call Girls
I know it’s okay to have differing opinions, and I won’t unfollow someone because we disagree a few times. But I love blogs that mostly agree with my thoughts on books. That’s just because I don’t want to read about someone bashing a book that I adored, or praising a book that I despised. It puts me off! If it happens once in a blue moon, no biggie. But if we constantly have differing opinions, I just can’t click with the blog!
ReplyDeleteescorte gatineau
ottawa escort agency
ottawa escort agencies
Punggol Escorts
Sengkang Escorts
Serangoon Escorts
http://www.yoursecretdesires.net
Plane Airfare
ReplyDeletebook Plane Airfare india
Booking Hotels in Delhi
Online Hotel Bookings
Booking Hotels Online
Plan Your Trip With Us
Safe Travel Plans
Thanks for the article. What type of comment is most useful? For example bilbochoice.org is website about truck accident lawyers in Houston and rest of Texas, what is most effective comment to leave? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteBelapur Call Girls Service
Kharghar Call Girls Service
Russian Call Girls Service in Mumbai
Model Call Girls Service in Mumbai
Housewife Call Girls Service in Mumbai
High Class Call Girls Service in Mumbai
Cheap Rate Call Girls in Mumbai
Thank you for Sharing Such a Nice List, Do follow Article Submission Site and This Article site is best for Article Submission. Post Your Article Here and Get High Traffic on Your Website.
ReplyDeleteevent planning companies near me in Gurgram
birthday party planner near me in Delhi
birthday party planner in Gurgaon
wedding event management in Gurgram
party event planners in in Delhi
party organizers in Gurgaon
https://maxeventplanners.blogspot.com/
Nice post dude. I have one question. On most of the blogs I have noticed people instead of commenting with their name, they use blog name.
ReplyDeleteHousewife Escorts Service in Delhi
Busty Escorts Service in Delhi
High Class Escorts Service in Delhi
Model Escorts Service in Delhi
Punjabi Escorts Service in Delhi
Slim Escorts Girls Service in Delhi
_____$$$$_________$$$$
___$$$$$$$$_____$$$$$$$$
_$$$$$$$$$$$$_$$$$$$$$$$$$
___$Independent Escorts Delhi$
___$$Cheap Rate Delhi Escorts$
___$$$$$$Delhi Escorts Photos$
_$$$$$$$Delhi Escorts$$$$$$$$
__$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
__$$Call Girls in Delhi$$$$$$
____$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
_______$$$$$$$$$$$$$
__________$$$$$$$
____________$$$
It’s really useful blog . If you looking to shopping a pillow in singapore the best choice is phiten.Phiten is a world leader when it comes to wellness innovation
ReplyDeleteNew Escorts in Kharghar
Escorts Services in Bangalore
Escorts Services in Hyderabad
Escorts Services in Ahmedabad
Escorts Services in Chandigarh
Escorts Services in Vizag Visakhapatnam
Escorts Services in Agra
Kalyug Ki Laila
http://www.kalyugkilaila.com/
Escorts Theme Blog
We achieved many clients trust on our every services of massage basel, massage bern, massage geneva and massage Goa.
ReplyDeleteEscorts Services in Goa
Escorts Agency in Goa
Photos Of Escorts Services in Goa
Escorts Service in Goa
Affordable Escorts in Goa
Whatsapp Escorts Services in Goa
Thank you so much for this nice information. Hope so many people will get aware of this and useful as well. And please keep update like this.
ReplyDeleteText Analytics Tool
Data Analytics Solutions
Very interesting article. But I am not sure how much it helps to build up traffic to our blog
ReplyDeleteMumbai Call Girls▐ ▶
Vile Parle Call Girls▐ ▶
Sakinaka Call Girls▐ ▶
Navi Mumbai Call Girls▐ ▶
Kharghar Call Girls▐ ▶
Chembur Call Girls▐ ▶
Belapur Call Girls▐ ▶
Andheri Call Girls▐ ▶
Bandra Call Girls▐ ▶
Borivali Call Girls▐ ▶
The post is absolutely fantastic! Lots of great information and inspiration both of which we all need! Also like to admire the time and effort you put into your blog.
ReplyDeletemost popular social media
best social media sites
best social networking apps
So far out of all the blogs,I personally feel this blog is just awesome.There are soo many information provided here in this blog. Therefore It is totally amazing...
ReplyDeleteSoftware Testing Services
Software Testing Company
Functional Testing Services
QA Automation Testing Services
Functional Testing Company
Performance Testing Services
Security Testing Services
API Testing Services
Regression Testing Services
eCommerce Testing Services
Mobile App Testing Services
Good Blog with good Pictures, i really like it.We provides
ReplyDeleteTempo Traveller rental Delhi to Vaishno Devi
Delhi to Vaishno Devi Tempo Traveller rental
rental Tempo Traveller Delhi to Vaishno Devi
Tempo Traveller Hire Delhi to Vaishno Devi
Delhi to Vaishno Devi Tempo Traveller Hire
Hire Tempo Traveller Delhi to Vaishno Devi
Tempo Traveller booking Delhi to Vaishno Devi
Delhi to Vaishno Devi Tempo Traveller booking
booking Tempo Traveller Delhi to Vaishno Devi
Tempo Traveller rent Delhi to Vaishno Devi
Delhi to Vaishno Devi Tempo Traveller rent
rent Tempo Traveller Delhi to Vaishno Devi
Tempo Traveller rate Delhi to Vaishno Devi
Delhi to Vaishno Devi Tempo Traveller rate
rate Tempo Traveller Delhi to Vaishno Devi
Find us on Youtube :Tempo traveller on rent
Delhi Location :
118, Vardhman AC Market CSC Block - E, Sec,18 Rohini, Delhi, 110089
Rent,Hire tempo traveller Delhi to Vaishno Devi call us +91-9560075009
Our Hyderabad Female escort girl you book through us feels the same as your girlfriend because she casually appears in front of you with impressive looks, which attracts you. The girl talks and behaves with you like a friend there you can quickly get into her closeness and explore your way of entering the erotic world. In that kind of a scenario will suggest some things you may implement at that time. Follow us:-
ReplyDeleteFemale Escorts Hyderabad
Hyderabad Escorts
Hyderabad call girls
Call Girls in Hyderabad
Escorts in Hyderabad,
Hyderabad Escorts Agency
Hyderabad Independent Escorts
Independent Hyderabad Escorts
VIP Escorts in Hyderabad
Great Blog! Thanks for sharing.
ReplyDeleteEnjoy your precious time with lovely, beautiful, sexy young girls. To make your day delight our Escorts in Connaught Place tries tough to stress down your problem in just few minutes.
Great Blog! Thanks for sharing.
ReplyDeleteIf you are looking for intimacy, then Escorts in Gurgaon is the best option for you. They will cater to you the best intimate relationship, getting no strings attached to you.
Amazing Article ! I would like to thank you for the efforts you had made for writing this awesome article. This article inspired me to read more. keep it up. Defence Simulation
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteAre you looking for CALL GIRLS in Jaipur and escort service? independent call girls in Jaipur.
https://escortservicesinjaipurcity.com/
https://escortservicesinjaipurcity.com/escort-service-in-jaipur/
https://escortservicesinjaipurcity.com/jaipur-escorts/
https://escortservicesinjaipurcity.com/jaipur-escort-service/
https://escortservicesinjaipurcity.com/jaipur-call-girls-service/
https://escortservicesinjaipurcity.com/contact-us-jaipur-call-girls/
Jaipur Escort
Simulation can be used in variety of ways in a traditional learning program. They can be used as the stimulus for a learning program – as the hook that captures the learner by placing them in a real situation and asking them what they would do.
ReplyDeletePatna escorts
ReplyDeleteCall girl in patna