Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Analyzing Climate Change and Water Resource Uncertainties using Bayesian Methods

In this article, authors use a Bayesian-method approach, in combination with risk analysis to analyze the uncertainties surrounding climate change.


The main issues targeted in this paper look at climate change and its potential impacts on water resource systems by looking at the detection varying climates, estimation of climate parameters, and wetland management.
The information collected used atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and observations to determine probable temperature variations on a regional scale. To do this, the authors used a range of 30-years for data in boreal winter and summer in 22 different regions.

The authors conclude that Bayesian analysis is a practical and theoretically sound approach to analyzing uncertainty, and to synthesize information from multiple simulations, as seen in the study.

Benjamin F. Hobbs, Bayesian Methods for Analysing Climate Change and Water Resource Uncertainties, Journal of Environmental Management, Volume 49, Issue 1, January 1997, Pages 53-72 Available online at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479796901164

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