Green Team Summary of Findings: Role-playing (4 out of 5 stars)

Note: This post represents the synthesis of the thoughts, procedures and experiences of others as represented in the 16 articles read in advance (see previous posts) and the discussion among the students and instructor during the Advanced Analytic Techniques class at Mercyhurst College on 29 April 2010 regarding Role-playing specifically. This technique was evaluated based on its overall validity, simplicity, flexibility and its ability to effectively use unstructured data.

Description

Role-play is used as a training method to acquire knowledge, attitudes, and skills in a range of disciplines and with learners of different ages. Role-play in particular is a type of simulation that focuses attention on the interaction of people with one another and emphasizes the functions performed by different people under various circumstances. Role-play can be fully scripted or partially scripted. Players can rotate through roles or new information can be added into the role-play.

Role-playing has been used and continues to be employed as a tool to facilitate training in vocational and interpersonal skills and as a method of active learning in educational and commercial settings. Though there is no single type of role-played exercise, the term is best applied where the teaching and learning experience rests with a form of `as-if’ experimentation. Role playing, is most often used in a classroom and requires physical involvement on the part of students.

Strengths:

• Can identify critical issues in predeveloped plans
• Enables active critical thinking to solve encountered problems
• Can be tailored to fit a specific scale
• Engages participants effectively
• Allowed for development of critical skills in a controlled environment
• Enables critical feedback from supervisor
• Provides an engaging learning environment.
• An opportunity for active learning in a safe, low-risk environment
• Develop a range of transferable skills, qualities and competencies
• Rapidly and effectively improve the communication skills of trainees
• Participants have a better overview of problems and can foresee what possible solutions exist and why. Furthermore, participants become more involved in the training
• Allows participants to experiment with various strategies without real consequences, allowing them to express their opinion freely
• Enhances self-confidence of participants
• The fictitious nature of the interaction reduces the psychological stress of a situation which allows shyer people to participate more fully than they might feel free to do in real life.
• Gives students a better understanding of the decision-making process
• Can be applied to various situations**
• Good way to investigate the consequences of decisions or designs with little risk or cost
• Captures cultural aspects well in designs and decisions
• The activity simulates the emotions of an actual event which engages participants in the process.
• Encourages creative solutions
• Increases insight into another person's point of view
• Analyzes problems from various perspectives
• Implements brainstorming methodology in simulations of real cases
• Develops team-work, co-operation and creative problem solving in groups

Weaknesses:

• Effectiveness can be hampered by individuals not taking it seriously
• The absence of training in role-play disciplines can lead to 'under-play,’ where the participant’s inability hinders role development, or to 'over-play,’ where the participant exaggerates or caricatures their part
• Inability of some role-players to effectively participate due to anxiety or dislike of a given role
• Participants may become apathetic to role play exercises over time
• Puts individuals on the spot, which might lead participants to resist
• Increased possibility of risk to personnel in some scenarios
• Role play exercises are challenging to devise
• May require a large amount of resources
• Can be difficult to manage or facilitate
• Emotionally and intellectually demanding
• Does not allow for much detail in the information being studied or all of the variables involved
• Lack of realism in roles, setting, or task
• Cannot account for all real world issues

How To:

There are many ways in which to conduct a role-plaing exercise depending on the desired outcome. However, from the research several consistent trends emerge. They are as follows:

1.) Begin with a historical background and basic understanding of the concepts/topics at hand.

2)Make sure that the participants are committed to the process.

3.) Determine the teams/groups

4.) Define the roles of the members of the group

5.) Actively role play responding spontaneously

6.) Discuss results and give feedback

7.) If needed, repeat taking different courses of action

Personal Application:

Each member of the class was randomly assigned a role ranging from a four year old child to a 75 year old all with very different "roles" such a doctor, a professor, a mechanic, a zooligist, and an athlete. The context was that the group was on a sinking ship and a lifeboat was available with eight spots. However, there were twelve people so each person role-played to decide who should be saved and who should not. During the fifteen minutes of the exercise, each person particpated in deciding the fate of the members and of themselves by the role they were given.

Summary of Findings (White Team): Role Playing (4 out of 5 Stars)

Note: This post represents the synthesis of the thoughts, procedures and experiences of others as represented in the 16 articles read in advance (see previous posts) and the discussion among the students and instructor during the Advanced Analytic Techniques class at Mercyhurst College on 29 April 2010 regarding Role Playing specifically. This technique was evaluated based on its overall validity, simplicity, flexibility and its ability to effectively use unstructured data.

Description:

Role-playing has been used and continues to be employed as a tool to facilitate training in vocational and interpersonal skills and as a method of active learning in educational and commercial settings. Though there is no single type of role-played exercise, the term is best applied where the teaching and learning experience rests with a form of `as-if’ experimentation.

The methodology is a recognized and successful tool in behavioral assessment, which encourages the application of the technique. In crisis negotiation role playing, which was done in today's exercise, participants used communication skills and reasoning to resolve crisis situations. Results from Role Playing are qualitative results that allow a detailed view of the particular scenario and possible outcomes. The White Team recognizes this technique as a 'method' as opposed to a 'modifier'.

Strengths:

• Allows for development of ideas and thoughts in a controlled environment.
• Provides an opportunity for active learning in a safe, low-risk environment.
• Allows for the application to multiple different types of situations or persons.
• Can be easily conducted as a low cost exercise.
• Simulates the emotions of an actual event which engages participants in the process.

Weaknesses:

• Participants may not take the exercise seriously.
• Participants may act as a caricature of the person they area assigned, rather than respond as the person.
• Participants may have a use different decision-making processes due to their social upbringing.
• A false confidence in their understanding of the role they are playing may result in participant overconfidence in their predictive ability of the person's action.
• The situation in which the participants are placed may be missing critical elements of reality present in emergency situations.

How To:

• Begin with a historical background and basic understanding of the topics / issues that is the subject of the role play
• Discuss the problem to be portrayed
• Determine the teams/groups
• Define the roles of the members of the group
• Make sure that the participants are committed to the process.
• Act out the situation, responding spontaneously.
• Evaluate the actions of each player.
• Repeat, taking different courses of action if needed.
• Discuss results and feedback

Application:

Students were presented with a scenario where there was a sinking ship and only 10 people could fit on the life boat. Each student picked a role to play out of a hat and introduced themselves to the group. After all the roles were announced each made their case as to why they should stay on the boat. Some participants voluntarily requested to remain on the sinking ship where others pleaded their individual cases to secure a spot on the life boat. Through this discussion it allowed different conceptual models to emerge that influenced the way decisions were made. We also came to the understanding that in order to role play it is important that all participants take their part seriously as it influences the outcome of the exercise. It is also important to note that value assumptions,mirror imaging and cultural biases are likely to manifest and it is vital to the success of the exercise to mitigate those factors.

Role-Play Training for Negotiators in Diverse Environments

Introduction

The author of this article opens up the discussion by citing facts of the ever increasing stakes for the hostage negotiator in today's complex world. In the wake of the Columbine shootings and the DC sniper events, hostage negotiators must be ever vigilant and better trained. Furthermore, the author states that "By using locations previously unfamiliar to team members and tactical units, commanders may decrease the anxiety associated with a particular environment while also role-playing in a realistic setting".

One Agency's Experience

The majority of the article focuses on one police department in Suffolk County, New York (located on Long Island). The Suffolk County Police Department (SCPD) "is training in a variety of locations and venues to understand and respond more quickly and effectively to a hostage or barricade incident". The SCPD notes that two of the most important factors for carrying out a successful hostage role-play are the planning involved and the chosen location.

In regards to planning, the SCPD says that by consulting with officials at the proposed site, Hostage Negotiation Team (HNT) supervisors can design and implement realistic role-play scenarios based on the unique threat environment. "Role-play scripts and scenarios are designed to provide the best and most realistic training within the limitations of time and personnel available."

Lastly in terms of location, the HNT has sought out sites that have the potential to be hostage situation sites. Some of the sites that the team has trained at include a bank slated for demolition, a local high school (during the summer months), the Suffolk County jail and correctional center, the medical center at the local VA, a university dormitory and a municipal park. All of the role-plays at each of these locations gave the negotiators an idea of how such events could transpire and what the difficulties would be in dealing with each specific situation.

Source
For any further information and for the results of the study, please see "Role Play Training for Negotiators in Diverse Environments" in the FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, written by James R Maher accessed through Academic Search Complete.

Role-Play For Medical Students Learning About Communication: Guidlines For Maximising Benefits

Debra Nestel and Tanya Tierney, the authors of this article, state that role-play is widely used as an educational method for learning about communication in medical education. Despite the wide use of role-play as a teaching method, there is little published evidence about its effectiveness. This paper explores students' experiences in role-play with the intent of producing guidelines for maximizing the benefits of this learning method.

Method
As part of their communication class, first-year undergraduate medical students participated in a role-play session. Both before and after the session, students were asked to complete questionnaires that asked about their experiences with role-play. Immediately following the role-playing exercise, the students answered similar questions in relation to the role-play activity they had just completed. Their answers were then analyzed.

Results
284 students completed the questionnaires. The results indicated that 63 (22.2%) had prior unhelpful experiences with role-play. However, most students (274; 96.5%) found this experience helpful. The students reported that this activity was helpful because it produced opportunities for observation, rehearsal and discussion, realistic roles and alignment of roles with other aspects of the curriculum. The students also reported that some of the unhelpful aspects of the exercise were factors that contributed to a lack of realism.

Conclusion
This study concluded that role-play was valued by students and that it helped them acquire better communication skills. Finally, the authors' proposed guidelines for effective role-play include adequate preparation, alignment of roles and tasks with level of practice, structured feedback guidelines, and acknowledgment of the importance of social interactions for learning.

Source: http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/1472-6920-7-3.pdf

Joint Civilian/National Guard Mass Casualty Exercise Provides Model for Preparedness Training

Following criticism of civilian and military response to hurricanes Katrina and Rita, members of the New York Air National Guard and the Central New York Medical Reserve Corps developed plans for a full scale exercise to determine their roles in a mass casualty situation. The Exercise was developed between October 2005 and March 2006. The event was held over two days, with the first day providing a series of partial drills for each section of the groups activities like triage. On the second day a full scale exercise including 350 individuals from over 25 agencies took place. The simulated mass casualty drill involved 32 victims contaminated in a hydrogen fluoride explosion. Following the drill three evaluation sessions were given; one by first responders, one by medical personnel, and a third by military personnel. The exercise was able to identify critical issues in joint military/civilian operations, and provide possible solutions to a number of the identified problems.

Strengths:
-Can identify critical issues in predeveloped plans
-Enables active critical thinking to solve encountered problems
-Can be tailored to fit a specific scale
-Engages participants effectively

Weaknesses:
-Effectiveness can be hampered by personnel not taking it seriously
-Increased possibility of risk to personnel in some scenarios
-May require a large amount of resources
-Requires extensive preparation

Source:
Grant, W., & Secreti, L. (2007). Joint Civilian/National Guard Mass Casualty Exercise Provides Model for Preparedness Training. Military Medicine, 172(8), 806-811. Retrieved from Military & Government Collection database.

The Korean War: A Role-Play to Remember

Introduction

This article is written from a teacher's point of view with an educational context in which the class participates in a role play of the Korean War. The author first discusses the importance of the Korean War and talks about how it is one of the most overlooked American wars to date. She then points out the benefits of using role playing and elaborates on the technique. The author says that "role play generates student interest in the topic and allows students to physically, as well as mentally participate in their own learning".

The Role-Play Itself

Prior to engaging in the role-play, the author recommends stimulating a discussion on the concept of "war". In preparation for the lesson, the teacher should cut out and mount the script cards (found in the appendix of the article), create the role-play roles (U.N., U.S., North Korea, South Korea, etc.) and using masking tape outline the Korean peninsula on the floor of the classroom. The role-play parts that the students will be re-enacting include some historical figures such as Stalin, a KGB agent, France, General MacArthur and the Yalu River to name a few examples. The author recommends that the day of the activity, you as the teacher administer a pre-test to see what the students know about the Korean War. To actually accomplish the role-play the students should follow the directions on the cards but should not break any of the following rules:

1) Do not trade roles; roles are distributed randomly.
2) Attach your role to your chest so it can be seen.
3) When called to particpate read the card that you are given.
4) Read loudly enough so everyone can hear.

Following the role-play the author recommends administering a post-test to see what the students have learned. Furthermore, she advises to conduct a class discussion to see what they thought about the role-play experience and to see what they learned!

Source

For any further information and for the results of the study, please see "The Korean War: A Role-Play to Remember" by Marjori M Krebs accessed through Academic Search Complete.

DECISIONS, DECISIONS! A Genetics Role-playing Activity

Role Playing

Summary:
Sharon Nelson of Waunakee High School in Wisconsin published a role playing scenario she used for her high school students. The scenario is about the "3 P's of science", as Nelson writes; "problem posing, problem solving, and peer persuasion." She briefly discusses the purpose of the role play, and the procedure in which to do it.
In the procedure she says "students will be assigned to work in groups of 2-5, at the instructor's discretion. Students will then choose a scenario for role playing. Their job is to research any and all information pertinent to their situation. Students may divide the roles in any way they see fit (one may choose to assume the role of parent, another the role of doctor, etc.) Once they have the necessary information, they must make some decisions regarding their situation, based on the bioethical issues involved. In addition to a 5-10 minute oral presentation, students must, with their group members, turn in one written report."

She then lists the possible scenarios the students can choose from. All the scenarios are relatively short and to the point. An example of one is...
You have hemophilia; you and your spouse would like to have children. You are referred to a genetic counselor.
Income: You just lost your job due to missing so many days of work for hospital stays. Wife's income as teacher's aide: $18,000.
Insurance: none

Weaknesses:
Very lengthy on preparation

Link
http://www.accessexcellence.org/AE/ATG/data/released/0350-SharonNelson/index.php

Role Playing: Applications in Hostage and Crisis Negotiation Skills Training

This article provides an overview of various applications of the role playing are used by the FBI as part of their crisis negotiation training. The article states that role playing is a recognized and successful tool in behavioral assessment, which encourages the application of the technique. In crisis negotiation role playing, participants develop critical active listening skills commonly used to resolve crisis situations. The article highlights a number of role playing tests and activities performed by the FBI. Additionally it highlights a possible future trend in digital applications to crisis negotiation. Validation for the method is limited to studies indicating increased abilities among subject who had undergone extensive role playing.

Types of Role Playing Activities:
-Table top
-Functional
-Partial/Full scale

Strengths:
-Allowed for development of critical skills in a controlled environment
-Enabled critical feedback from supervisor
-provides an engaging learning environment.
-Identifies potential weaknesses

Limitations:
-Cannot account for all real world issues
-Requires a capable confederate force
-Limited field validation (in crisis negotiation)
-Require extensive resources for full scale exercise

Source:
Role Playing: Applications in Hostage and Crisis Negotiation Skills Training
Van Hasselt, Vincent B., Romano, Stephen J., Vecchi, Gregory M.
Behav Modif, Mar 2008; vol. 32: pp. 248-263

Pre-managerial Business Education: a role for role-plays?

This article looks at the value of role playing into an undergraduate business curriculum. The author contends that those with limited or zero management experience can benefit greatly from a unique perspective on management challenges and from simulating aspects of interaction and decision-making in organizational settings.

Role playing defined
Role-playing has been used and continues to be employed as a tool to facilitate
training in vocational and interpersonal skills and as a method of active learning in
educational and commercial settings. Though there is no single type of role-played
exercise, the term is best applied where the teaching and learning experience rests
with a form of `as-if’ experimentation.

Strengths
• A opportunity for active learning in a safe, low-risk environment
• Can be applied to many different vocations
• Advance subject-based learning
• Develop a range of transferable skills, qualities and competencies

Weaknesses
• Emotionally and intellectually demanding
• The absence of training in role-play disciplines can lead to `under-play’, where the participant’s inability hinders role development, or to `over-play’, where the participant exaggerates or caricatures their part
• Inability of some role-players to effectively participate due to anxiety or dislike of a given role
• Can be difficult to manage or facilitate

How-To (as applied to the business curriculum for this study)
1.) Begin with a historical background and basic understanding of the business concepts/topics at hand.
2.) Determine the teams/groups
3.) Define the roles of the members of the group
4.) Establish the topic to role play
5.) Actively role play
6.) Discuss results and give feedback

This article was accessed through Academic Search Complete through Mercyhurst College libraries: "Pre-managerial Business Education: a role for role-plays?" By Simon A. Mercado

Effectiveness Of Role Playing, Case Studies, and Simulation Games in Teaching Agricultural Economics

This study assessed the impact of role playing, case studies, and simulations for teaching at the undergraduate level. Its purpose was to show how effective the tools were at improving the student’s level of understanding for certain concepts.

Objectives and Methodology

The educational impact model was used in a qualitative evaluation of the content and the level of effectiveness for role playing, case studies, and simulations. The study was conducted during two classes with one professor teaching the same course. One course was taught using only lecture and the other class was taught using the three different aids. The study also used an average of student test scores as an indicator of the level of effectiveness and student performance. Both classes were given the same test.

Role Playing

Role playing, as most often used in a classroom, requires physical involvement on the part of students. Two or more people "act out" the part of individuals in a hypothetical situation. For the purpose of the class, the following situation was used:

Students were presented with the subject of “price determination; a role-playing exercise patterned around the open-outcry market typical of commodity futures markets.”

1.) Sixteen students participated in three successive auctions, some acting as farmers and others acting as wholesalers.

2.) Information concerning quantities to be bought or sold and profit/cost levels per pound was provided on index cards given to each participant by the instructor.

3.) During each three-minute auction the students had to negotiate transaction prices with one another.

4.) After the third auction, the three sets of resulting prices were analyzed by the entire class.

5.) After the instructor told the class which set of prices were generated in an equilibrium, surplus, and shortage situation the students could see that the theory presented in their textbooks did, in fact, describe what happened in their exercise.

Results for the Effectiveness of Role Playing

The results for the experiment concerning use of a role-playing exercise provide some insight into the impact. Role playing had only a small direct effect on exam scores; only a 3 percent increase on scores. However, students made written comments on how role playing raised the student’s level of interest. 73 percent of the participants noted that the exercise was one of the most favorable parts of the course.

Strengths

· Gives students a better understanding of the decision-making process

· Can be applied to various situations

Weakness

· Does not allow for much detail in the information being studied or all of the variables involved

Comments

For results of the whole study including case studies and simulations, please see “Effectiveness Of Role Playing, Case Studies, and Simulation Games in Teaching Agricultural Economics” by Steven Blank accessed through Academic Search Complete.

Investigating the Use of Role Play Training to Improve the Communication Skills of IS Professionals: Some Empirical Evidence

Mark Frolick, the author of this article from The Journal of Computer Information Systems, looks at the effectiveness of the role play exercise for the communication skill improvement of Information Systems (IS) professionals. Role play is an active learning technique that creates a training situation in which the interpersonal interactions and communication flow characteristics of the real world can be accurately reflected.

The study consisted of 93 role play exercises aiming to improve the two dimensions of communication skills, content and process related skills, which were conducted among 92 graduate students enrolled in systems analysis and design courses between 1998 and 2000. It looked at two questions: How fast can role play exercises generate measurable results? and Does the incremental improvement in communication skills between role play exercises decrease over time? Each group was given 5 minutes to prepare a scenario, which was then acted out. Fellow students acted as judges and rated the participants in terms of effective communication in both content and process. Each student participated in 3 role-playing exercises about 4 weeks apart.

Results
The analysis of the data suggests role play is a viable training method that can yield measurable results of communication skill improvement. The content and process related skills of the participants improved consistently over the three role play exercises on average. Incremental improvement decreases as more role play exercises were conducted, which is consistent with learning curve theory.

Strengths

• rapidly and effectively improve the communication skills of trainees
• participants become more involved in the training
• participants have a better overview of problems and can foresee what possible solutions exist and why
• allows participants to experiment with various strategies without real consequences, allowing them to express their opinion freely
• enhance self-confidence of participants

Weaknesses

• participants may become apathetic to role play exercises over time
• role play exercises are challenging to devise
• puts individuals on the spot, which might lead participants to resist

Source:

http://www.allbusiness.com/human-resources/workforce-management/1126451-1.html

Role-play for Medical Students Learning About Communication: Guidelines for Maximizing Benefits

This article, from BioMed Central Medical Education, evalutes the use of role-playing as an educaitonal method for medical students. Authors Debra Nestel and Tayna Tierney focus on role-playing by 284 first-year medical students at Imperial College's communications program, which divides students into groups of 30 to learn specific skills associated with medical interviewing. Students take the role of interviewer, patient, or observer and have 5 minutes preparation, 5 minutes in role-play and 10 minutes in feedback. Before the sessions, students completed questionnaires about their prior experience with role-play, and afterwards, they completed evaluations about whether or not they thought role-play was helpful based on their new experience. Responses were both closed and open-ended.

According to the authors' research, role-play is used as a training method to acquire knowledge, attitudes, and skils in a range of disciplines and with learners of different ages. Role-play in particular is a type of simulaiotn that focuses attention on the interaction of people with one another and emphasizes the functions performed by different people under various circumstances. Role-play can be fully scripted or partially scripted. Players can rotate through roles or new information can be added into the role-play.

Results
Of the 284 students who completed forms, 199 had prior experience with role-play. 221 students reported role-play to be valuable for learning while the remainder reported it to be not valuable. After the role-play, 274 students reported that role-play had been helpful for leaning. Unhelpful experiences focused on emptional responses that impede learning, such as embarrasment, intimidation, or anxiety. Overall, role-play was reported to be an effective means of learning communication skills, desptite prior negative experiences with role-play.

Strengths

• students gained insight into their own and others' behavior
• increased understanding of certain issues
• increased communication skills
• players get immediate feedback

Weaknesses

• players not taking role-play seriously
• lack of realism in roles, setting, or tasks

Source:

http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/1472-6920-7-3.pdf

On The Move With A Magic Thing: Role Playing In Concept Design Of Mobile Services And Devices

This study, conducted in 2000, evaluated the success of using role playing to design a mobile network for the campus of Helsinki University of Technology to investigate the nomadic Internet use of the future. The design team hoped to overcome three main difficulties of their task through role playing. The design team was planning for the use of a technology that did not exist at the time, so it was hard to know how it would be used. They needed a design that allowed for mobility, and they had to incorporate their users' lifestyles and cultures into their plan for the technology.

The designers used two methods of role playing. One of these is called participatory design technique, in which the designers asked a sample of their target audience to enact daily situations imagining using a technology in a variety of campus settings and while playing either themselves or different roles. They utilized props to make the situation seem more realistic. In contrast, the second type of role playing, referred to as Situated and Participative Enactment of Scenarios (SPES) had people carry a mock up of the anticipated product in their hand with them through their daily activities and imagine how they might use the product. A trained observer recorded the participant's thoughts. The study revealed the following strengths of role playing in general.

Strengths:

• Engages users in a common cause
• Good way to investigate the consequences of decisions or designs with little risk or cost
• Captures cultural aspects well in designs and decisions

Results:

The study also made it clear that the participatory design technique in which people acted out fictional situations was better suited to designing services involving group interaction and dynamic incidents. In contrast, SPES was more useful for considering less dynamic activities such as listening to music, and it helped give designers a more detailed scenario because the recorder noted the context of a user's actions.

Source:

http://www.cs.hut.fi/~pmrg/publications/GO-PROD/2000/Lacucci_Kuutti_Ranta_OMMT.pdf

The Social Framework of the Role-Playing Process

This article, written by Markus Montola, looks at the process of role-playing that takes place in different games, and the inconsistencies between the definitions of role-playing. In this article, Montola defines the role-playing mindset as a method of game playing, which can be optionally combined with various game systems. Role-play typically has no inherent endogenous goals at all. The rules of role-playing only provide the structure for the activity, but give no end condition or an objective.

Montola states that role-play, a social activity, always has three elements present: an imaginary game world, a power structure, and personified player characters. According to the article, the power structure of role-playing activities about imaginary people acting out in an imaginary environment is what differentiates it from children's play. Montola proposes three general rules that should always be followed in any type of role-playing:

1) Role-playing is an interactive process of defining and re-defining the state, properties and contents of an imaginary game world.
2) The power to define the game world is allocated to participants of the game. The participants recognize the existence of this power hierarchy.
3) Player-participants define the game world through personified character constructs, conforming to the state, properties and contents of the game world.

This article examines several forms of role-playing, primarily taking examples from tabletop role-playing, live-action role-playing, and virtual role-playing.

Source: http://journalofroleplaying.org/

Problem Solving and Conflict Resolution Role Playing

The article describes the use of role playing to come up with constructive solutions to conflict and problems in a classroom setting. The technique entails assigning people to act out a conflict scenario in order to come up with the best solution to a problem. Role playing is often used in education to improve children's interpersonal skills and ability to handle difficult social situations. It is versatile and has applications for solving problems as simple as playground bullying to those as complex as international tensions.

Strengths:

• The activity simulates the emotions of an actual event which engages participants in the process.
• The fictitious nature of the interaction reduces the psychological stress of a situation which allows shyer people to participate more fully than they might feel free to do in real life.
• Encourages creative solutions.
• Increases insight into another person's point of view.

Weaknesses:

• It is not a fruitful exercise unless the participants take it seriously.

How to:

1. Discuss the problem to be portrayed.
2. Make sure that the participants are committed to the process.
3. Assign roles.
4. Act out the situation, responding spontaneously.
5. Evaluate the actions of each player.
6. Repeat, taking different courses of action if needed.

Source:

http://www.classroomsthatwork.com/pdf/Roll%20Playing.pdf

Team Role Play

Role Playing

Summary:
The author of this article on Team Role Playing, Jeffrey Baumgartner, writes that role playing "is when a group of people act out roles for a particular scenario." He goes on to describe a simple role playing scenario about a salesman and a customer. In essence, the two sales trainees play the two roles. Baumgartner mentions that other people may watch the scenario in order to better understand also.

The article continues with Baumgartner's scenario of salesman and customer being put to groups of trainees. There are specific rules that are laid out before each group and eventually each group must make a decision about how to best "play out" the scenario. The author mentions that when a team member is trying to help the "actor" that it should not be discouraged because it could possibly lead to better solutions. He sums up his discussion about his scenario by showing how each scenario can become more and more complex by adding more specifics, forcing the "actors" to think more about how to reach the best outcome for their team.

Strengths:

• Analyzes problems from various perspectives

• Implements brainstorming methodology in simulations of real cases

• Tries various solutions in a case scenario

• dDevelops team-work, co-operation and creative problem solving in groups

• Exercises creative techniques in a risk-free environment

Link:
http://www.jpb.com/creative/roleplay.php

Green Team Summary of Findings: Delphi Analysis (3 out of 5 stars)

Note: This post represents the synthesis of the thoughts, procedures and experiences of others as represented in the 16 articles read in advance (see previous posts) and the discussion among the students and instructor during the Advanced Analytic Techniques class at Mercyhurst College on 22 April 2010 regarding Delphi Technique specifically. This technique was evaluated based on its overall validity, simplicity, flexibility and its ability to effectively use unstructured data.

DESCRIPTION

The Delphi method is based on a structured process for collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of experts by means of a series of questionnaires combined with controlled opinion feed back. It was developed in the early 1950s, and mainly applied to technology forecasting, but also to many types of policy analysis.

Delphi focuses on researching the future or things about which little is known. It relies on the use of expert opinion, utilizes remote group processes, adopts an iterative research process, and creates a consensus of opinion.

There are three versions of the Delphi Technique:

• Numeric – aims to specify a single or minimum range of numeric estimates through the use of summary statistics.

• Policy - on the exploration, generation and definition of several alternatives and the arguments for and against each of these alternatives.

• Historic - aims to explain the range of issues that fostered a specific decision, identification of several scenarios that could have led to the resolution of a past problem.

Delphi is particularly appropriate when decision-making is required in a political or emotional environment. The tool works formally or informally, in large or small contexts.

STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Strengths:

• Its ability to ascertain expert opinions and potential policy options

• Allows a group response without the attendant disadvantages sometimes experienced with group problem solving or decision-making.

• Expert participants are more likely to generate reasoned, independent, and well-considered opinions in the absence of exposure to the "persuasively stated opinions of others". Because the experts do not ever participate in a face-to-face discussion, there is no danger of one or more individuals’ opinions being swayed by a more dominant or more experienced individual.

• Efficiency and flexibility, especially in light of modern communication technologies such as e-mail and the Internet. Experts may be drawn from a wide geographic area, and the participants’ commitment in terms of time and money invested is minimal.

• Delphi method has been shown to be an effective way to conduct research when the responses being sought are value judgments rather than factual information. Although it is more difficult to assess the "correctness" of value judgments, it is generally agreed upon that value judgments are not all equal but can in fact be more "right" or more "wrong."

Weaknesses:

• A low level reliability of judgments among experts

• Dependency of forecasts on the particular judges selected

• Should not be used when any of the following three critical conditions are not present: adequate time, participant skill in written communication, and high participant motivation. It is estimated that a minimum of 45 days is required to carry out a Delphi study

• A high degree of motivation is needed to offset the tendency for participant dropout as the study progresses. Because there is no direct contact between participants, those who are not highly motivated and interested in the subject at hand may feel isolated or detached from the process (It is easy for participants to drop out of the process)

• There is a strong response of the group to conform with the statistical feedback of the panel, extreme points of view, which may provide new insights tend to be suppressed

• The way the questionnaire and process is structured can lead to a bias and a Delphi study is at the mercy of the view and biases of the coordinating team, who choose respondents, interpret the information and structure the question

• Participants must be knowledgeable and able to clearly communicate their ideas

• Sensitivity of the results to ambiguity in the questionnaire that is used for

• Difficulty in assessing the degree of expertise incorporated in the forecast

• Good responses can be altered by those without a strong belief in the participants' answers

HOW TO

There are many ways in which to conduct a Delphi exercise depending on the desired outcome. However, from the research several consistent trends emerge. They are as follows:

• A questionnaire is sent to experts.

• Each expert gives his answers to the questions in an independent and anonymous way.

• The responses of each expert are analyzed by the monitoring team. The moderator summarizes the responses to the first questionnaire and develops a feedback report along with the second set of questionnaires for the panelists

• The set of responses is then sent back to experts and they are asked if they wish to revise the initial predictions.

• The process is reiterated until a degree of consensus is reached by experts. Generally the number of rounds is determined in advance.

• The moderator develops a final summary and feedback report to the group and decision makers

PERSONAL APPLICATION

We started with the a question: "Of the 21 first year graduate students, how many will graduate on May 21, 2011 having successfully completed their thesis or comprehensive exam?" Each person wrote out their answer without discussion and handed it in. While one person found the average, the facilitator introduced data regarding the thesis completion rate from 2005 to 2009. The average was written on the board and then a one minute discussion regarding the trend of incompletes. Then the group wrote out their next answer and another set of calculations were done. Another one minute discussion was introduced and then a third round of responses. A final discussion noted how/if the process changed answers due to the introduction of facts or consensus from the "experts."

Summary of Findings (White Team): Delphi Technique (3out of 5 Stars)

Note: This post represents the synthesis of the thoughts, procedures and experiences of others as represented in the 16 articles read in advance (see previous posts) and the discussion among the students and instructor during the Advanced Analytic Techniques class at Mercyhurst College on 22 April 2010 regarding Delphi Technique specifically. This technique was evaluated based on its overall validity, simplicity, flexibility and its ability to effectively use unstructured data.

Description:

Delphi is a method for a structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem. It was created in the 1950's by the Rand Corporation to increase efficiency and to bring together Subject Matter Experts to assess and create possible outcomes to a problem. It is a process conducted through the use of multiple rounds to introduce new ideas and come to a consensus on those new ideas along with existing ideas.

Strengths:

• Its ability to ascertain expert opinions and potential policy options, including new alternatives.
• Participants can be located all over the world.
• Depending on the goal of the study, consensus on a forecast may be reached.
• Anonymity improves participants ability to judge the presented options, not just presentation style.
• Forecasts can be judged against the later reality of the situation.

Weaknesses:

• Participants must trust the methodology and moderator or facilitator for this to work.
• Moderator or facilitator should be objective.
• Can lead to Groupthink.
• Susceptible to the anchoring bias.

How To:

Pick a facilitation leader: The facilitator is an expert in research data collection, and is not a stakeholder.

Select a panel of experts: The panelist should have an intimate knowledge of the projects.

A questionnaire is sent to experts.

Each expert gives his / her answers to the questions in an independent and anonymous way.

The moderator summarizes the responses to the first questionnaire and develops a feedback report along with the second set of questionnaires for the panelists

panelists independently evaluate earlier responses and vote on the second questionnaire

The set of responses is then sent back to experts and they are asked if they wish to revise the initial predictions.

The process is reiterated until a degree of consensus is reached by experts.

Some variations to this very basic method include:

• The number of iterations (the more rounds, the closer the consensus likely to be reached)
• The method of selection and size of the panel
• The scoring system and the rules used to aggregate the judgments of the panelists
• The extent of anonymity afforded to the panelists
• How consensus is defined and how disagreements are dealt with

Application:

We decided to apply the Delphi technique to expected completion of the Master of Science of Applied Intelligence program here at Mercyhurst College. At graduation, every student is allowed to walk across the stage to be recognized, however, not every student may have completed the degree requirements necessary to receive his or her diploma. Based on statistics from recent years, our class attempted to estimate how many out of 21 students in the class of 2011 would actually receive their diplomas on graduation day. In our graduating class, currently 20 students are scheduled to write a thesis and one student is scheduled to take a comprehensive exam. There were three rounds of anonymous voting:

• Round 1 - Average:14.5; High: 19; Low: 7
• Round 2 - Average: 13.08; High: 17; Low: 7
• Round 3 - Average: 13.16; High: 17; Low: 10

After round 1 there was a 1-minute discussion to articulate why each of us voted the way we did. After round 2 we were presented with previous classes' graduating statistics which was designed to provide background information that we could use to adjust our individual estimates. After round 3, we arrived at our final conclusion as shown above.

Formal Expert Judgement: An Overview

Introduction:
This paper, prepared at the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission within the frame of the institutional action SAFELIFE - Safety of Ageing Components in Nuclear Power Plants. Acknowledging that formal expert judgement has become a relatively well-established tool in connection to risk assessments, the paper aims to apply formal expert judgement to assess the structural integrity of nuclear power plant components. In the past, the Delphi method was one of two key methods that were used to convey structured expert opinion. The authors offer a description of the method, including the process and it's limitations.

The Delphi Method: Description
Developed in the early 1950s, it was mainly applied to technology forecasting, but also to many types of policy analyses. The method is based on a structured process for collecting and distilling
knowledge from a group of experts by means of a series of questionnaires combined with controlled opinion feed back.

Process:

• A questionnaire is sent to experts.
• Each expert gives his answers to the questions in an independent and anonymous way.
• The responses of each expert are analysed by the monitoring team. Thelower 25% and the upper 25 % of responses are excluded.
• The set of responses is then sent back to experts and they are asked ifthey wish to revise the initial predictions.
• The process is reiterated until a degree of consensus is reached by experts.

Weaknesses:

• A low level reliability of judgements among experts and therefore
  dependency of forecasts on the particular judges selected
• Sensitivity of the results to ambiguity in the questionnaire that is used for
  data collection in each round
• Difficulty in assessing the degree of expertise incorporated in the forecast
• Responses can be altered by monitors in the attempt of moving the
  following round of responses in the desired direction.

Despite these weaknesses, the authors note, "it must be acknowledged that there have been many poorly conducted Delphi applications and there is in fact an important conceptual distinction between evaluating a technique and evaluating an application of a technique." Therefore, they conclude that in general the Delphi method is useful in answering one
specific and single-dimension question. They argue; however, that it may not be effective for
determining complex forecasts concerning multiple factors since the collation of expert judgements suffers from the possibility that interactions between forecasted items may not be fully considered.

Improving the Delphi Method:
To improve forecasting reliability in the Delphi method, it is necessary to consider
the possibility that the occurrence of one event may change the probability of occurrence of other events included in the surveys. Cross impact analysis was therefore developed as an extension of Delphi method.

Source:
K. Simola, A. Mengolini, R. Bolado-Lavin. "Formal Expert Judgement: An Overview", Institute for Energy, Joint Research Center of the European Commission (2005).

The Delphi Technique In Developing International Health Policies: Experience From The SARSControl Project.

Summary:
The study entitled The Delphi Technique In Developing International Health Policies: Experience From The SARSControl Project, main objective was to evaluate the “Delphi technique” as a tool to assist in developing international policies for SARDS and SARS-like diseases using the criteria found in the literature and its application in the SARSControl Delphi study.

Methods:

The European Community funded research project SARSControl was made up of 17 international organizations. Its policy evaluation work package was the setting of this study and the basis of our study was the SARSControl hence, data and results from it have been used for our analysis.
This paper uses the criteria defined in the literature to assess the process of using the Delphi technique in one of the largest up to-date projects aimed at developing international emerging infectious disease policies. The evaluation was done using the qualitative description of the SARSControl Delphi and carrying out a critical analysis of different aspects of each criterion.

Results:
The Delphi process, which was carried out over a period of nine months consisted of a pilot round, two written rounds and a final face-to-face meeting. Sixty infectious disease experts who were national experts in the field of infectious diseases who working at senior levels nationally and internationally, and represented their country on the Advisory Forum of the European Centre for Disease Control, Stockholm (ECDC) were approached. Of the 60, 47 accepted the invitation-written consent was obtained from them. Thirty-eight experts (from 22 countries) participated in the 1st written round and 28 experts (from 19 countries) in the 2nd written round; and 11 newly recruited experts with similar expertise as the participants from the written rounds (as five panellists invited from the written rounds were not able to participate ) from 9 countries participated in the face-to-face meeting. A possible explanation for this is that as national experts, they were extremely busy, and also the panelists were not invited early enough and nor were they informed of it at the recruitment phase. Two reminders were sent after the written round invitations. The response rate for the 1st round was 80% and the 2nd round was 74%. Seven replies received after the face-to-face meeting were excluded from the analysis. Misinterpretations of questions in the written rounds were rectified by either deleting or clarifying them in the 2nd round questionnaire.
The Delphi panel participants consisted from various health-related disciplines, however their specific experience with SARS was not known. Other relevant specialists for e.g. behavioural scientists and communication specialists were not included in the Delphi panel. European countries were well represented- France, Germany, Singapore, Sweden and the U.K. were countries with experience of 'probable' SARS cases. Learning from Chinese and Canadian experiences was one of the aims of the project. Two experts from China (with the most SARS experience) were invited to the written rounds but they were unable to participate. Canadian experts were not invited.

Conclusion:
The Delphi technique can aid the international policy development process and it can be a versatile tool, which creatively collects expert opinions and suggestions in a new topic. Central criteria to be met include representative panel composition, high panelist motivation, and effective but flexible administration of the Delphi process. Based on the assessment of SARSControl Delphi technique, it can be concluded that when rigorously administered, analyzed and reported, is a valuable method to develop international health policy recommendations for emerging infectious diseases, even though discrepancies in its application existed. The SARSControl Delphi technique was a positive experience, and can also be considered by others for similar purposes.

Strengths and Weaknesses:

This is the first methodological study to assess the Delphi technique in developing international infectious disease policies. Although this is a case study within one project, it exemplifies some crucial issues in applying the Delphi technique.
The major strength of the policy Delphi used was its ability to ascertain expert opinions and potential policy options, including new alternative ones, from countries representing different cultures and health policies on the timely issue of infectious disease control. This contributed to the policy recommendations to be put forward to policy makers to agree upon.
The major weakness of the Delphi was that the panel represented mostly European experts, missing countries with most SARS experience, and also the discontinuity from the written rounds to the face-to-face meetings due to drop out and financial constraints.

Source:
Syed, A., Hjarnoe, L., & Aro, A. (2009). The Delphi Technique In Developing International Health Policies: Experience From The SARSControl Project. Internet Journal of Health, 8(2), 5. Retrieved from Academic Search Complete database.